As wheat harvest heads to parched north, Europe braces for more losses

24.07.2018
Europe’s grain market is bracing for more downgrades to the size of this year’s wheat crop as harvesting reaches the northern regions that have been worst hit by exceptional drought and heat since spring. Germany, the European Union’s second-largest wheat grower, has been a focus of concern, and comments this week by the country’s farming association saying it could not forecast the crop because of uncertainty about weather damage have added to market jitters. Harvesting is under way in south and central Germany and is spreading north to the regions most badly damaged by dryness. “I think it pretty likely that the association will cut its forecast of the wheat crop in coming weeks as the harvest results arrive,” one German analyst said. “The association cut its forecast of the winter barley sharply after the final northern and eastern areas were gathered where the damage was severest.” The DBV farming association already forecast on July 5 that Germany’s winter wheat harvest will fall 15% from 2017 to 20.5 million tons. It declined to update the number this week but sharply lowered its winter barley crop estimate. Neighboring Poland is also expected to see a significant drought impact, while harvest rain was now slowing field work. Poland’s wheat output may fall 10% from 2017 to about 10 million tons, Sparks Polska forecasts. “The winter wheat harvest started 2-3 weeks earlier than normal, but now it has been hampered by wet weather,” Wojtek Sabaranski of the analyst firm said. As well as slowing field work, rain around harvest time can damage wheat quality, and downpours in southeastern Europe have raised concern that exporting EU members Romania and Bulgaria may have less milling-grade wheat than usual. In Britain, the wheat harvest has just got underway earlier than normal, with a smaller crop widely anticipated. Crop analysts expect production to fall below 14 million tons, well down on last year’s 14.8 million and the lowest since 2013. “The continued decline in the UK wheat area, lack of rainfall and higher than usual temperatures in June could lead to a prospective tightening of the UK wheat supply,” the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board said in a report. France, the EU’s top wheat grower, is expected to play its part in the reduced European supply after torrential rain hurt crops earlier in the year, although recent hot, dry weather may have boosted grain quality. Consultancy Agritel on Friday forecast the French soft wheat crop, excluding durum, at 34.2 million tons, more than 6% below last year’s crop. Agritel’s estimate was toward the low end of current market expectations as market participants struggle to extrapolate varying local yields. But with a rapid harvest already two-thirds complete, results may become clearer in the week ahead. Traders and analysts have widely reported good quality readings, notably for test weights and protein content, which could help French export prospects this season. Source - http://www.blackseagrain.net
RISK EVENTS

Europe - Around 66,000 ha damaged - 23 million euros in damages

02.07.2021

While Vereinigte Hagelversicherung VVaG reported 30,000 hectares damaged just a few days ago, this figure has more than doubled within a few days. A good 66,000 hectares were registered for regulation from June 18 to 25. This is due to so-called supercells, which came from France through Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria to Austria and the Czech Republic, causing hailstorms over a length of several hundred kilometers. Local heavy rainfall with enormous amounts of rain from so-called "water bombs" and hailstones the size of tennis balls caused damage to almost all crops, often with total losses. On June 22 and again on June 24, the damage area stretched from Lake Starnberg via Munich to Passau. In Baden-Württemberg, the Neckar-Alb region was hardest hit on June 21 and, just two days later, the strip from Freiburg via Reutlingen to Esslingen. A locally intense area of damage extended along the North Sea coast in the Groningen-Norden-Aurich triangle on both the Dutch and German sides of the border. In addition, abroad, the polder areas on the IJsselmeer and the Baltic region were particularly affected. After the first surveys, Vereinigte Hagel now expects damage of about 20 to 23 million euros, a doubling compared to the beginning of last week. Supercells and what they are about - currently no end in sight The background to the now considerably higher damage figures are so-called supercells, which have a much higher damage potential than ordinary thunderstorms due to their rotation and longevity. "Their most important feature is the so-called "mesocyclone," a powerful rotating updraft. It creates a negative pressure on the ground so that, like a vacuum cleaner, warm and energetic air can be constantly sucked in at the ground and reach the upper edge of the troposphere (above 10 km altitude). There the warm air is sucked in and there is also the danger of possible tornadoes. Subsequently, in the area of the sinking cold air, it is not uncommon for extreme downbursts to reach the hurricane range. Over time, supercells develop a momentum of their own that prevents the sinking cold air (as compensation for the rising warm air) from entering the warm air area. Thus, the mesocyclone is fed with warm air for several hours. Due to the longevity and massive power of the rotating updraft, hailstones can be flung into the air several times, growing into large hailstones. From Monday through Thursday, conditions in southern Germany were ideal for these rotating monsters. A warm and humid air mass was stored in the lower atmosphere, so to speak the fuel for the engine of the rotating mesocyclones. In addition, the wind near the ground came from an easterly to northeasterly direction (which favored suction), veered nearly 180° to the southwest up to an altitude of about 5 kilometers, and increased significantly. In short, there was sufficient directional and velocity shear. This is a basic requirement for the formation of rotation in the updraft region and helps to prevent the sinking cold air from reaching the front of the thunderstorm cell." And it's set to continue. The DWD forecasts heavy thunderstorms in the south and southwest of Germany on Monday evening, as well as on Tuesday. Experts prepared for this, because in June or July such weather phenomena are not uncommon, as Vereinigte Hagel knows from almost 200 years of experience. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

26.08.2021

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26.08.2021

Germany - 2021 wheat crop to fall 3.6% after adverse weather

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26.08.2021

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26.08.2021

USA - Severe weather destroys thousands of acres of crop in Fairbank

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26.08.2021

USA - Heat bears down on California grapes

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26.08.2021

India - Farmers in Erode urged to insure crops for Kharif season

The district administration has asked the farmers in the district to insure crops under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (Prime Minister’s Crop Insurance Scheme) for Kharif season 2021 so that they can get relief for crop loss due to natural calamities, pest attack or disease outbreak in the current rabi season. 

24.08.2021

Online Agroinsurance Conference to be held on October 4-5, 2021

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24.08.2021

Malaysia - Sarawak Disaster Management Committee to assist durian farmers

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