The sun and a south wind are scorching corn in the field and driving cattle to seek shade. It is only mid-June, but already drought conditions have hit parts of the Brazos Valley.
Some relief was expected this weekend, with an 80 percent chance of showers in today's forecast.
"We're not expecting to make up 8 inches over the week, but this will help," National Weather Service meteorologist Dennis Cain said.
Brazos County received more than 21 inches of rain through June 14 last year. In the same period this year, just over 14 inches of rain has been recorded at Easterwood Airport, according to the weather service.
Corn farmers will be doing well to produce a quarter of the corn per acre they were able to produce last year, said Jimmy Westerfeld, who has been a farmer in Central Texas for 44 years.
"It's bad," Westerfeld said. "There are not a lot of happy farmers right now. And if not for crop insurance, there could be a lot of broke farmers."
Last year, almost ideal conditions produced corn yields ranging from 120 to 130 bushels per acre, he said. Yields have plummeted to 30 bushels per acre on "really good land," while some growers have resigned themselves, and their fields, to producing livestock feed called silage.
"Everybody talks about 2011 and how terrible it was," Westerfeld said. "But I think this year is just as bad, from a temperature standpoint."
Officially, most of Brazos County is classified as "abnormally dry," with the northeastern portion of the county and all of Robertson County experiencing "moderate drought," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Much of the state is suffering from hot and dry conditions extreme even for Texas. The Panhandle, for example, is suffering conditions that fluctuate between "exceptional" and "extreme" drought.
"It's a horribly dry period right now," county AgriLife Extension agent Shane McLellan wrote in an email. "Insurance adjusters already are looking at corn because a lot of it will not produce an ear. It's burnt up from lack of moisture and heat. This dry south wind is drying everything up. Not really going to affect price because Midwest produces more of the corn, and they are having a decent year. Cotton and grain sorghum are also suffering. There is a scarcity of hay for livestock."
Farmers around much of Texas face trying times, said Mark Welch, an associate professor and agriculture economist at Texas A&M University.
"Grain, across the board, is pretty well done," Welch said. "Some farmers are salvaging forage, putting up hay, trying to capture as much value as they can. There is still time for cotton to produce, especially with the rainfall predicted. But overall, I see this as a crop-insurance year."
Besides the weather, other factors are squeezing growers in Central Texas and elsewhere in the Lone Star State, Welch said.
Corn production "is off to a great start" in the Midwest, the nation's corn belt, which puts downward pressure on prices nationwide. That means growers in Texas face both weather-induced limited production and market-driven prices just high enough to curtail federal benefits.
The United States' foreign trading partners also may target agricultural products when they impose retaliatory tariffs on goods in response to President Donald Trump's trade measures, Welch said.
"If we're placing tariffs on manufactured products, which we rely upon, then they will hit back on what they rely upon: meat and food and fiber grain," he said. "This will put farmers in the middle, though the issue really has nothing to do with agricultural products. That often is where the penalty is paid."
Sanderson Farms Chief Financial Officer Mike Cockrell said weather conditions in Texas could affect what the Mississippi-based poultry giant pays for feed.
"It may be hot and dry in Texas, but the weather has been excellent in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa," Cockrell said. "It could not be more perfect. We have a guy who advises us on grain, tells us what to expect, and he said he's never seen an Illinois corn crop like he's seen this year.
"We supply our plants in Mississippi, Georgia and North Carolina primarily with Midwest grain."
But Sanderson Farms operates multiple processing plants in Texas -- including Bryan. The company also has two feed mills and is building a third in the state, he said.
"We do historically buy a fair amount of local corn in Texas," Cockrell said. "That could impact prices next year, but this year, we're in good shape."
David Volleman, president of the Texas Association of Dairymen, said the group continues to closely monitor feed availability.
He is aware of drought conditions around the state, including in Central Texas, an area that ships truckloads of silage and feed to dairy herds in Comanche and Hamilton counties, Volleman said.
Dairy farmers prefer corn silage produced from an entire corn crop, including the ears, stalk and kernels, and silage recently shipped to the dairies has shown heat stress and is not of the best quality, he said.
"We're having to supplement it with grain from out-of-state, and that absolutely drives up costs," Volleman said. "But we have to get the same result."
Jeff Baize, who raises corn on about 3,200 acres near Waco said he produces silage for dairies near Stephenville.
"Normally, I can produce 12 to 16 tons of silage per acre," Baize said. "This year, it will be more like 6 to 10 or 11 tons, which is a substantial difference. The tonnage is less, and so is the quality. Oats and wheat, they are as good as they have been in six or seven years, but corn is our main crop."
The coming rain "will help the cotton farmers and could keep the silage a tad greener," he said. "But once corn begins to burn, you can't cut it fast enough."
Waco Livestock Auction owner Jody Thomas said local cattle ranchers are watching the skies and hoping for a slow, soaking rain.
"There is always concern when conditions get like this, because cattle raisers know how bad it could get," Thomas said. "The industry is sitting on the fence. If we get a good general rain this weekend or next, it will help."
Prices can go either way during dry spells, he said.
"During the drought of 1996, they were pretty bad," Thomas said. "But in 2011, they were pretty good."
Source - http://www.theeagle.com
