UKRAINE: OVERVIEW OF PRECEPITATION AND VEGETATION OVER JUNE-JULY 2012 Summer crops: Cumulative precipitations – (mm) from 15.06.2012 to 15.07.2012
The map of cumulative precipitations from mid-June to mid-July 2012 shows different conditions over Ukraine. The level of precipitation at Western and Northern parts of the country is close to the normal conditions (from 45mm). In comparison, South and East of Ukraine during the same period had a very a few precipitations (sometimes below 8mm). Taking into account the weather conditions, the level of risk to have an impact of a drought on the summer crops yield potential would increase from north-west to south-east of Ukraine. A more detailed analysis is described by vegetation map in July 2012 below.
Summer crops: Vegetation NDVI – CTE (%), from 25.06.2012 to 25.07.2012
The map of summer crops vegetation conditions during July 2012 shows unequal level of vegetation growth in different regions, from good to a very poor. The vegetation values (index NDVI) are distributed by the color in percentage relation to a minimum (<0%) and maximum (>100%) values that available at the database (since 1999) of AgriQuest website.Level of the vegetation growth is related to the amount of received precipitations, and there is a drought impact observed at some areas over the country.
The strong vegetation vigor over Northern and Western parts of Ukraine shows a good potential for summer crops yields and fair/poor conditions over South and East of Ukraine.
Summary: Taking look back to the weather conditions and its impact on a crop development during the summer 2012, there is yield and production potential variation observed at different regions of Ukraine. The level of risk to have an impact of a drought on the summer crops yield and production potential was increasing from North-West to South-East of Ukraine. Accordingly, the map at pick of vegetation for summer crops shows a good yield potential at the oblasts where rainfalls were received, and fair/poor conditions over oblasts with lack of precipitations.
To see in more details the difference between yield potential over Northern and Southern parts of Ukraine, there are graph below.The graph displays information under the point in Chernigiv oblast. It shows the growing cycle of crops in this area. Depending on the month, the state of development and vegetation growth of crops are at different stages of the life cycle – from the time of germination and plant formation until its maturation and drying.
Each type of crop has own vegetation stages that could be different in time from one to another. Looking at the graph in the Chernigov region there are a few types of a crop grown – the peak of vegetation growth in early June indicates peak of winter crops, the peak in early August – corn, etc.
The higher peak of vegetation and the longer cycle – the better yield potential over the area. Each curve of the graph is the year of interest (in this case 2012 – 2011), and average (black dotted curve). The vegetation growth of 2012 gives a very good potential above the average over this region.
This graph shows the growing cycle of crops in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at the same period as in Chernigov. The potential for yields in this region is very poor – one of the reasons – impact of drought. Vegetation curve of 2012 shows the level of productivity and development of both winter and spring crops – below last year and below average.
*Information source: website AgriQuest (http://www.agriquest.geosys.com/) – a monitoring of weather conditions impact on a crop development on a daily basis to anticipate potential risks.