The Impact of Climate Change on Coffee

02.04.2009 815 views
Climate change is not something new to coffee. It has already hit the coffee farmers hard in a dramatic manner. It is happening right now, in front of our very own eyes. A combination of factors like extreme heat and cold, unseasonal rains, severe droughts and floods, prolonged high daytime temperatures and sudden drop in night time temperature has significantly affected the ecology of plantation belts. Water resources, agriculture systems, cultural operations, plantation economics and loss of plant genetic resources has taken a severe toll, not only on coffee but also on the multiple crops grown inside ecofriendly coffee forests. Little do we realize that the very future of millions of coffee farmers is at stake? At the outset it is important to understand that the growth and development of the coffee bush is complex and encompasses a variety of anatomical, morphological, physiological and biochemical processes. Events Like shoot and root growth, hard wood formation, flower initiation, pollination, fertilization, embryo development, and fruit ripening, each of these processes, is a culmination of a series of events, many of which are microscopic. All these processes in turn are governed by a particular set of environmental conditions. In fact plant physiologists are certain about the influence of environment on the phyto hormones and biochemical processes during growth and differentiation of the coffee bush. Under ideal and stable environmental conditions the coffee bush is programmed to complete a set of processes like growth and differentiation. A certain degree of flexibility is allowed. However under a different set of environmental conditions (CLIMATE CHANGE) the life cycle may be shortened or lengthened. Combating climate change inside coffee forests is the main challenge facing the present generation of coffee farmers worldwide. This article highlights the impact of climate change on coffee. Coffee is a woody perennial shrub and requires great care in order for farmers to pick consistent and high yields. In the early part of the century, the weather patterns inside coffee forests was predictable and most of the operations like fertilizing, composting, liming and sprinkler irrigation was carried out anticipating the rains. In most cases the farmers were right, even though they were not assisted by computer controlled satellite weather stations. The stable Weather patterns resulted in high yields and most importantly the farming community was a contended lot. However for the past 10 -15 years the unpredictable global weather patterns has had a direct bearing on Indian coffee forests. It has reached such unmanageable proportions, that many farmers have moved away from plantations seeking refuge in urban areas. Especially, the mindset of the younger generation is in turmoil and utter chaos. The return on investment has seen a sharp decline, resulting in the abandonment of coffee farms. CELEBRATION TIME Feb, 10th, 2008 was a red letter day for a majority of coffee farmers in Karnataka. The Districts of Coorg, Chikmagalur and Hassan where ecofriendly shade grown coffee is grown received unexpected early and heavy blossom showers followed by backing showers after a period of three weeks. This phenomenon of timely blossom showers and subsequent backing showers was not witnessed in more than 30 years. The showers at the right time and in a well spread manner gave hope to a record crop where more than 70 % of the Country’s coffee is grown in Karnataka. This ideal moisture regime was supposed to yield bumper crops and the expectation from the farming community was running high. However, a majority of the farmers overlooked the fact that on day 10 of the blossom opening, both Arabica and Robusta plantations received mild and constant rain right from the morning up to late afternoon. The dense pockets of mist during pollination also added to the misery of farmers. Even though, the rains disrupted the 2007-08 harvest and triggered early flowering of the 2008-09 crop, farmers were happy that the coming year bumper crop would make up the losses of the previous year. DEATHLY SILENCE Ten months later, the Arabica picking commences and farmers are in for a rude shock. Their expectations of the blossom estimates did not translate into yield. In well maintained plantations the yield was significantly reduced to 4 bags of parchment coffee (Each bag weighing 50 KG). At the present International price (New York terminal) the returns could not even cover half the cost of cultivation. Since a vast Majority of the coffee farmers own both Arabica and Robusta in the ratio of 40:60, they were of the opinion that the Arabica yields were an aberration and that they would make up for the loss with a higher yield of Robusta. However, Robusta yields were also very low, hardly 3 bags of parchment per acre. Added to the low yields, most of the coffees has a significantly lower out turn because of the infestation of berry borer. Coffee farmers were a desperate lot, on one hand the yields per acre were below their actual cost of cultivation and on the other high berry borer infestation resulted in penalties at the curing works. REASONS ASSOCIATED WITH BERRY BORER INFESTATION Due to the early rains, there was a considerable delay in harvesting of Robusta coffee and a major portion of the ripe berries dropped to the ground. The delay in harvest and the fact that gleanings could not be completed in time resulted in berry borer going out of control. In fact, the ideal conditions for the growth and reproduction of the berry borer resulted in its spread like wild fire from one region to the other. CLIMATE CHANGE-IMPLICATIONS PHYSIOLOGICAL, INTERNAL & EXTERNAL FACTORS The coffee bush is a very sensitive plant and requires utmost care. The change from vegetative to reproductive growth marks a major change in the life cycle of the plant. The bush receives various internal and external stimuli that interact with the genetic information to cause changes in metabolic activity and structural organization. Physiological parameters such as plant growth, flowering, fruit set, fruit drop, fruit ripening, bean disorders, soil moisture stress, drought, and shade management play a crucial role in maintaining a healthy bush in both Arabia’s and Robusta’s. Apart from physiological aspects, both internal ( genetic ) and external factors like, climate and edaphic factors like light, temperature, rainfall, humidity, soil nutrients, soil moisture, aeration and soil temperature play an important role in the productivity of the bush. However, our observations point out that the most important point for the functioning of the coffee bush is the translocation of photosynthates to different parts, which leads to a healthy balance between vegetative and reproductive growth. HOW DOES A COFFEE BUSH BEHAVE UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES? The Central Coffee Research Institute (CCRI), at Chikmagalur district has carried out pioneering work with respect to understanding the physiology of the coffee plant. Their findings suggest that under South west monsoon conditions, the pattern of shoot growth is typically of sigmoidal nature with a slow growth from March/April to July and a period of rapid growth from august to October. Vegetative growth slows down with the onset of the dry period from November and it will be minimum during December-February and once again growth is resumed in March after the receipt of blossom showers. BEHAVIOUR DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE The advancement of the south west monsoon by almost 45 days (2008); lead to a chain reaction of disturbing events. The first to be affected was the internal clock of the coffee bush. It resulted in the imbalance of the biochemical constituents of the coffee bush. It also disturbed the diurnal temperature patterns. The production of growth regulators and promoters was off balance. The bush which was programmed to synthesize and transport chemicals and nutrients to both the vegetative and reproductive parts behaved erratically resulting in more of vegetative growth. The bush appears to be quite healthy but in reality is in an utter state of confusion. The coffee research Institute clearly indicates that the quantum of wood that is produced both in terms of new flush and extension growth including the number of nodes and foliage formed, plays a vital role in crop production as it becomes bearing wood for the succeeding year. However, climate change resulted in fewer nodes, less amount of productive wood, reduced spikes, giving rise to poor yields. FLOWERING IN COFFEE Our research work for the past 2 decades clearly indicates a strong relationship between temperature and flowering. Furthermore, the presence or absence of appropriate temperatures during this critical stage determines the success or failure of flowering and fruiting. The importance of temperature and the promotion of reproductive development is a key factor in stabilizing coffee yields. According to research carried out by the CCRI, flower bud initiation takes place from September onwards, under south Indian conditions. The factors responsible for floral initiation are short days (less hours of daylight), carbon nitrogen (C/N) ratio, intermediate temperature and hormonal balance. After elongation to certain length ( 7-8mm), there will be cessation of growth for a few weeks till the receipt of blossom showers. Then flower buds resume their growth faster, change color and open in about 8 to 10 days after the showers. Plants which are depleted of carbohydrates will also show floral abnormalities. As a consequence of climate change our observations point out that from the month of September onwards coffee growing regions of South India witnessed short day periods with high daytime temperatures and sudden drop in temperatures during the night time. This resulted in abnormal floral initiation. The translocation of carbohydrates was also affected resulting in floral abnormalities. In simple terms, attainment of short day periods does not automatically lead to the initiation of flower primordia. Certain set of environmental conditions must follow. These same environmental conditions, if presented to coffee that is not ripe to flower, elicit no flowering response. FRUITING According to the research work carried out by CCRI, The growth of Arabica fruits under south Indian conditions shows a bisigmoidal curve with two grand periods of growth during 118 to 152 and 183 to 212 days after blossom. Robusta coffee takes 6 to 8 weeks more than Arabica coffee for fruit maturity and ripening. The effect of climate change has impacted the fruiting pattern in both Arabica and Robusta. As a result the farmers commonly observe premature fruit drop. Due to the uneven distribution of rainfall (Sudden down pours & long spells of drought) the plant is subjected to wet feet during monsoon periods and drought during the summer months. The soil pores are waterlogged. A combination of favorable factors for high pest and disease incidence. The resulting defoliation and leaf rust significantly affects the crop. The change in climatic conditions like sudden drop in night temperature, cloudy weather, high relative humidity especially at the time of flowering results in multiple blossoms leading to different stages in berry growth and development. The plant is physiologically stressed and the imbalance in the Biochemical constituents leads to premature fruit drop. BEAN DISORDERS At the time of picking, coffee farmers are perplexed as to the low outturn in the coffee picked. The reasons for low outturn are mainly due to the short supply or depletion of carbohydrates leading to less sugar and starch in beans when compared to healthy beans. We have also observed a higher proportion of single beans in Robusta whenever the bush is exposed to low light intensity due to cloudy weather in the months of august, September and October. LEAF TO FRUIT RATIO The internal biological clock determines the effective leaf to fruit ratio. The metabolic changes include a redistribution of water, growth substances, sugars, nitrogenous compounds, organic acids and inorganic ions from roots, stem, and leaves. According to the research work carried out by CCRI, the leaf to fruit ratio on Coffee Arabica cv S 795 and Coffea canephora cv S 274 was found to be 1:3 and 1:6 respectively. This ratio may vary from season to season depending on berry drop and defoliation. Their further studies revealed that 17 cm2 and 27 cm2 of foliar areas were required to produce one fruit in Arabica and Robusta respectively. In effect their findings point out to a very important fact that a proper balance between leaves and number of fruits will sustain a crop over a number of seasons without adversely affecting the health of the plant. We have noticed that in both Robusta cultivars, old Robusta and S 274 the photosynthates are increasingly being earmarked for vegetative growth leading to lower fruit ratio. The leaf size is above normal, thickened with a waxy coating and internodes too are shortened. In Arabica, the carbohydrates are diverted towards berry formation leading to regular fruit drop and defoliation. SUMMARY OF EVENTS FOR THE CROPPING PERIOD 2008-2009 -  Premature rains in the early part of February on Good standing crop on the bush, resulting in undue stress on the plant. -  Ripe berries could not be picked because of the initiation of the 10 day flowering period -  More than half the crop could not be harvested because it fell to the ground and got mixed with the soil. -  Coffee on the floor of the forest accelerated the spread of the berry borer pest -  Early and continuous blossom showers resulting in forced and running blossom. -  Running blossom spaced with a time interval of more than a month. -  In some coffee growing belts, heavy and sudden downpour of hail stones. -  No proper time gap for induction of stress which is a prerequisite for healthy blossom -  Disproportionate size of the flowers due to excessive soil moisture regime. -  Rain from morning to dusk on day of flowering -  Entry of rain into spikelet’s resulting in abortion of one ovule in Robusta leading to multiple bean defects. -  Absence of honey bees affecting cross pollination -  Long spell of drought after application of the first round of manures and fertilizers. -  Longer breaks between rainy periods. -  Cloud burst resulting in runoff and erosion. -  Sudden dry spell resulting in non application of second round of manures and fertilizers. -  Formation of weak Nodes and internodes. (Bush in a state of shock) -  Small cluster of berries of different sizes spread all along the length of the branches, instead of tightly packed clusters. - During monsoon unexpected high winds causing severe defoliation in young Arabica and Robusta plants and loss of forest cover due to uprooting of trees. Untold economic misery. -  Defoliation in Arabica cultivars and excessive vegetative growth in Robusta. Imbalance in the vegetative growth and cropping wood. -  Premature fruit drop and low yields due to uneven growth and development of berries. -  No time gap for soil to dry, resulting in wet feet. -  Berry drop at regular intervals due to excess moisture in the soil. -  Over production in young plants resulting in defoliation. -  Premature ripening in Arabica (Almost one and a half months in advance) coincides with the north east monsoon. Picking was next to impossible and ripened fruits starting splitting open and falling to the ground due to rain. -  Drying both cherry and parchment coffee was a herculean task because of the unpredictable rain and cloudy weather -  Accumulation of afflatoxins and other species of moulds leading to deterioration in quality -  Coffees of very poor quality, Lower outturn. -  At time of picking Arabica and Robusta, excessive weed growth due to continuous soil moisture regime. -  Berries which fell to the ground, acted as hosts for berry borer infestation. (HIGH INCIDENCE OF BERRY BORER) -  Robusta berries with different sizes leading to different maturities, making picking difficult. -  Early drying up of juices inside Robusta ripe berries leading to lower outturn -  Selection Robusta (S 274) exhibiting significant blossoms (> 15 %) during rainfall in the month of November. (In effect the blossom should be less than 2 %) -  Both Arabica and Robusta exhibiting patterns of nutritional disorders -  Activity of high pest and disease incidence -  Prolonged and intense cold weather favoring high pest and disease incidence. -  Early flowering results in the formation of smaller and single beans. -  Early flowering can also result in flower drop during harvesting of beans. -  Heavy rains and hanging mist results in wet feet conditions-leaf and root diseases. CONCLUSION Environmental factors like sunlight, moisture and temperature plays a crucial role in the growth pattern of coffee that leads to formation of roots, shoots, leaves, flowers and other structural entities characteristic of the plant. Even a slight deviation from the normal pattern can have great impact on the yields of coffee. All biologically important reactions taking place inside the coffee bush are governed by a set of stable environmental conditions. In particular the bush is quite sensitive to temperature variations. If temperatures are too low, biological reactions are stifled by inadequate energy, while the complex structures of proteins become disrupted by temperature extremes in either direction. The engine of growth driving the coffee forest ecosystem is the solar radiation. Due to the impact of climate change the entire range of forests is subjected to an unpredictable regime of light and temperature. This impacts most of the biological processes. resulting in low yields and high pest and disease incidence. Climate change has directly affected coffee farms worldwide. The monsoon dynamics has totally changed. A time may soon come where coffee may not be the preferred crop inside coffee forests. This can result in serious ecological damage across the length and breadth of the coffee mountain. The future of 25 million coffee farmers and workers in underdeveloped and developing countries is also at stake. It is in humanities best interest to save the coffee forest. Dr. Anand Titus and Geeta N. Pereira
25.10.2022

A Practical Method for Adjusting the Premium Rates in Crop-Hail Insurance with Short-Term Insurance Data

The frequency of hailstorms is generally low in small geographic areas. In other words, it may be very likely that hailstorm occurrences will vary between neighboring locations within a short period of time. Besides, a newly launched insurance scheme lacks the data. It is, therefore, difficult to sustain a sound insurance program under these circumstances, with premium rates based on meteorological data without a complimentary adjustment process.

18.10.2019

Malta - Vegetable production dropped 7% in 2018

Last year, Malta’s local vegetable produce dropped by 7% when compared to the previous year. The total vegetables produced in tonnes amounted to 58,178, down by 7% when compared to 2017. Their value too diminished as the total produce was valued at €30 million, down by 13% over the previous year. The most significant drop was in potatoes, down by 27% over the previous year. Tomatoes and onions were the only vegetables to have increased in volume, by 3% and 4% respectively but their value diminished by 9% and 24% respectively. The figures were published by the National Statistics Office on the event of World Food Day 2019, which will be celebrated on Wednesday. Cauliflower, cabbage and lettuce produce dropped by 10%, 3%, and 12% respectively. In the realm of local fruit, a drop of produce was registered here too apart from strawberries, which experienced a whopping increase of 58% over 2017. Total fruit produced in 2018 amounted to 13,057 tonnes, down by 1% when compared to 2017. The total produce was valued at €10 million, a 3% increase in value. Peaches produced were down by 35% and the 376 tonnes of peaches cultivated amounted to €0.5 million in value. Orange produce dropped by 10% and lemon produce dropped by 14%. There was no change in the amount of grapes produced and the 3,642 tonnes of grapes produced in 2018 were valued at €2.3 million. 70% of fruit and vegetables consumed in Malta is imported. The drop in local produce could be the result of deleterious or unsuitable weather patterns. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

07.10.2019

USA - Greenhouse tomato production spans most states

While Florida and California accounted for 76 percent of U.S. production of field-grown tomatoes in 2016, greenhouse production and use of other protected-culture technologies help extend the growing season and make production feasible in a wider variety of geographic locations. Some greenhouse production is clustered in traditional field-grown-tomato-producing States like California. However, high concentrations of greenhouses are also located in Nebraska, Minnesota, New York, and other States that are not traditional market leaders. Among the benefits that greenhouse tomato producers can realize are greater market access both in the off-season and in northern retail produce markets, better product consistency, and improved yields. These benefits make greenhouse tomato production an increasingly attractive alternative to field production despite higher production costs. In addition to domestic production, a significant share of U.S. consumption of greenhouse tomatoes is satisfied by imports. In 2004, U.S., Mexican, and Canadian growers each contributed about 300 million pounds of greenhouse tomatoes annually to the U.S. fresh tomato market. Since then, Mexico’s share of the greenhouse tomato market has grown sharply, accounting for almost 84 percent (1.8 billion pounds) of the greenhouse volume coming into the U.S. market. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

03.10.2019

World cherry production will decrease to 3.6 million tons

According to information from the USDA for the 2019-2020 season, world cherry production is expected to decrease slightly and amount to 3.6 million tons. This decline is due to the damages that the weather caused on cherry crops in the European Union. Even though Chile is expected to achieve a record export, world trade in cherries is expected to drop to 454,000 tons, based on lower shipments from Uzbekistan and the US. Turkey Turkey's production is expected to increase to 865,000. As a result of the strong export demand, producers continue to invest and improve their orchards, switching to high yield varieties and gradually expanding the surface for sweet cherries. More supplies are expected to increase exports to a record 78,000 tons, continuing its long upward trend. Chile Chile's production is forecast to increase from 30,000 tons to 231,000 as they have a larger area of mature trees. Between 2009/10 and 2018/19, the crop area has almost tripled, a trend that is expected to continue. The country is expected to export up to 205,000 tons in higher supplies. The percentage of exports destined for China has increased from 13 to almost 90% since 2009/10. China China's production is expected to increase by up to 24% and to amount to 420,000 tons, due to the recovery of the orchards that were damaged by frost last year. In addition, there are new crops that will go into production. Imports are expected to increase by 15,000 tons and to stand at 195,000 tons, as the increase in supplies from Chile will more than compensate for the lower shipments from the United States. Although higher tariffs are maintained for American cherries, the United States is expected to remain China's main supplier in the northern hemisphere. United States US production is expected to remain stable at 450,000 tons. Imports are expected to increase to 18,000 tons with more supplies available from Chile. Exports are forecast to decrease for the second consecutive year to 80,000 tons, as high retaliatory tariffs continue to suppress US shipments to China. If this happens, it will be the first time that US cherry exports experience a decrease in 2 consecutive years since 2002/03, when production suffered a fall of 44%. European Union EU production is projected to fall by more than 20%, remaining at 648,000 tons because of the hail that affected the early varieties in Italy, and the frost, low temperatures, and drought that caused a significant loss of fruit in Poland, the main producer. Lower supplies are expected to pressure exports to 15,000 tons and increase imports to 55,000 tons. Russia Russia's imports are expected to contract by 13,000 tons to 80,000 with lower supplies from Kazakhstan, Moldova, and Serbia. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

09.08.2019

EU - 20% fewer apples and 14% fewer pears than last year

This year's European apple production is expected to come to 10,556,000 tons. That is 20% less than last year. It is also 8% less than the average over the past three years. The European pear harvest is expected to be 2,047,000 tons. This is 14% lower than last year and 9% less than the previous three seasons average. These figures are according to the World Apple and Pear Association, WAPA's top fruit prognoses. They presented their report at Prognosfruit this morning. Apple harvest per country Poland is Europe's apple-growing giant. This country is expected to process 44% fewer apples. The yield is expected to be 2,710,000 tons. Last year, this was still 4,810,000 tons. In Italy, yields are only three percent lower than last year. According to WAPA, this country will have an apple harvest of 2,195,000 tons. France takes third place. They will even have 12% more apples than last year to process - 1,652,000 tons. Pear harvest per country With 511,000 tons, Italy's pear harvest is much lower than last year. It has dropped by 30%. In terms of the average over the previous three seasons, this fruit's yield is 29% lower. In the Netherlands, the pear harvest is expected to be six percent lower, at 379,000 tons. This volume is still 3% more than the average over the last three years. Belgium has 10% fewer pears (331,000 tons) than last year. They are just ahead of Spain. With 311,000 tons, Spain who will harvest four percent more pears. Apple harvest per variety The Golden Delicious remains, by far, the largest apple variety in Europe. It is expected that 2,327,000 tons of these apples will be harvested this year. This is three percent less than last year. At 1,467,000 tons, Gala estimations are exactly the same as last year. The European Elstar harvest will also be roughly equivalent to last year. A volume of 355,000 tons of this variety is expected. Pear harvest per variety Looking at the different varieties, the European Conference is estimated to be 8% lower than last year. A volume of 910,000 tons is expected. The low Italian pear estimate will result in 34% fewer Abate Fetel pears (211,000 tons) being available. This is according to WAPA's estimate. This makes this variety smaller than the Williams BC (230.000 ton) in Europe. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

30.01.2018

Spring frost losses and climate change not a contradiction in terms - Munich Re

Between 17 April and 10 May 2017, large parts of Europe were hit by a cold snap that brought a series of overnight frosts. As the budding process was already well advanced due to an exceptionally warm spring, losses reached historic levels – particularly for fruit and wine growers: economic losses are estimated at €3.3bn, with around €600m of this insured. In the second and third ten-day periods of April, and in some cases even over the first ten days of May 2017, western, central, southern and eastern Europe experienced a series of frosty nights, with catastrophic consequences in many places for fruit growing and viticulture. The worst-affected countries were Italy, France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Switzerland. Losses were so high because vegetation was already well advanced following an exceptionally warm spell of weather in March that continued into the early part of April. For example, the average date of apple flowering in 2017 for Germany as a whole was 20 April, seven days earlier than the average for the period 1992 to 2016. In many parts of Germany, including the Lake Constance fruit-growing region, it even began before 15 April. In the case of cherry trees – whose average flowering date in Germany in 2017 was 6 April – it was as much as twelve days earlier than the long-term average. The frost had a devastating impact because of the early start of the growing season in many parts of Europe. In the second half of April, it affected the sensitive blossoms, the initial fruiting stages and the first frost-susceptible shoots on vines. Meteorological conditions The weather conditions that accounted for the frosty nights are a typical feature of April, and also the reason for the month’s proverbial reputation for changeable weather. The corridor of fast-moving upper air flow, also known as the polar front, forms in such a way that it moves in over central Europe from northwesterly directions near Iceland. This north or northwest pattern frequently occurs if there is high air pressure over the eastern part of the North Atlantic, and lower air pressure over the Baltic and the northwest of Russia. Repeated low-pressure areas move along this corridor towards Europe, bringing moist and cold air masses behind their cold fronts from the areas of Greenland and Iceland. Occasionally, the high-pressure area can extend far over the continent in an easterly direction. The flow then brings dry, cold air to central Europe from high continental latitudes moving in a clockwise direction around the high. It was precisely this set of weather conditions with its higher probability of overnight frost that dominated from mid-April to the end of the month. There were frosts with temperatures falling below –5°C, in particular from 17 to 24 April (second and third ten-day periods of April), and even into the first ten-day period of May in eastern Europe. The map in Fig. 2 shows the areas that experienced night-time temperatures of –2°C and below in April/May. High losses in fruit and wine growing Frost damage to plants comes from intracellular ice formation. The cell walls collapse and the plant mass then dries out. The loss pattern is therefore similar to what is seen after a drought. Agricultural crops are at varying risk from frost in the different phases of growth. They are especially sensitive during flowering and shortly after budding, as was the case with fruit and vines in April 2017 due to the early onset of the growing season. That was why the losses were so exceptionally high in this instance. In Spain, the cold snap also affected cereals, which were already flowering by this date. Even risk experts were surprised at the geographic extent and scale of the losses (overall losses: €3.3bn, insured losses: approximately €600m). Overall losses were highest in Italy and France, with figures of approximately a billion euros recorded in each country. Two basic concepts for frost insurance As frost has always been considered a destructive natural peril for fruit and wine growing and horticulture, preventive measures are widespread. In horticulture, for example, plants are cultivated in greenhouses or under covers, while in fruit growing, frost-protection measures include the use of sprinkler irrigation as well as wind machines or helicopters to mix the air layers. Just how effective these methods prove to be will depend on meteorological conditions, which is precisely why risk transfer is so important in this sector. There are significant differences between one country and the next in terms of insurability and insurance solutions. But essentially there are two basic concepts available for frost insurance: indemnity insurance, where hail cover is extended to include frost or other perils yield guarantee insurance covering all natural perils In most countries, the government subsidises insurance premiums, which means that insurance penetration is higher. In Germany, where premiums are not subsidised and frost insurance density is low, individual federal states like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg have committed to providing aid to farms that have suffered losses – including aid for insurable crops such as wine grapes and strawberries. Late frosts and climate change There are very clear indications that climate change is bringing forward both the start of the vegetation period and the date of the last spring frost. Whether the spring frost hazard increases or decreases with climate change depends on which of the two occurs earlier. There is thus a race between these two processes: if the vegetation period in any given region begins increasingly earlier compared with the date of the last spring frost, the hazard will increase over the long term. If the opposite is the case, the hazard diminishes. Because of the different climate zones in Europe, the race between these processes is likely to vary considerably. Whereas the east is more heavily influenced by the continental climate, regions close to the Atlantic coastline in the west enjoy a much milder spring. A study has shown that climate change is likely to significantly reduce the spring frost risk in viticulture in Luxembourg along the River Moselle1. The number of years with spring frost between 2021 and 2050 is expected to be 40% lower than in the period 1961 to 1990. By contrast, a study on fruit-growing regions in Germany2 concluded that all areas will see an increase in the number of days with spring frost, especially the Lake Constance region, where reduced yields are projected until the end of this century. At the same time, however, only a few preliminary studies have been carried out on this subject, so uncertainty prevails. Outlook The spring frost in 2017 illustrated the scale that such an event can assume, and just how high losses in fruit growing and viticulture can be. Because the period of vegetation is starting earlier and earlier in the year as a result of climate change, spring frost losses could increase in the future, assuming the last spring frost is not similarly early. It is reasonable to assume that these developments will be highly localised, depending on whether the climate is continental or maritime, and whether a location is at altitude or in a valley. Regional studies with projections based on climate models are still in short supply and at an early stage of research. However, one first important finding is that the projected decrease in days with spring frost does not in any way imply a reduction in the agricultural spring frost risk for a region. So spring frosts could well result in greater fluctuations in agricultural yields. In addition to preventive measures, such as the use of fleece covers at night, sprinkler irrigation and the deployment of wind machines, it will therefore be essential to supplement risk management in fruit growing and viticulture with crop insurance that covers all natural perils. Source - ttps://www.munichre.com/

17.05.2014

Russia Livestock Overview: Cattle, Swine, Sheep & Goats

Private plots generate 48 percent of cattle, 43 percent of swine and 54 percent of sheep and goats in Russia.  The Russian government recently approved a new program that will succeed the National Priority Project in agriculture (NPP) titled, “TheState Program for Development of Agriculture and Regulation of Food and Agricultural Markets in 2008-2012,” that encourages pork and beef production and attempts to address Russia’s declining cattle numbers.  This program includes import-substitution policies designed to stimulate domestic livestock production and to protect local producers. In the beginning of 2007, the economic environment for swine production was generally unfavorable.  The average production cost was RUR40-45/kilo of live weight, while the farm gate price was RUR40/kilo live weight.  Pork producers have been expressing concern for years about sales after implementation of the NPP as pork consumption is growing at a slower rate than pork production.  As a result, the pork sector has been lobbying the Russian government to regulate imports in spite of the meat TRQ agreement. From January-September 2007, 1.38 million metric tons (MMT) of red meat was imported.  A 12-year decline in beef production has resulted in limited beef availability in the Russian market leading to a spike in prices.  In response, the Russian government has been force to take steps to increase the availability of beef by lifting a meat ban on Poland and by looking to Latin America for higher volumes of product.  Feed stocks decreased during the first 11 months of 2007 compared to the previous year which will likely create even greater financial problems for livestock operations in 2008 as feed prices continue to skyrocket.  Grain prices increased rapidly in Russia through the middle of July 2007 before stabilizing at high levels as harvest progress reports were released. The Russian pig crop is expected to increase by 6 percent in 2008, while cattle herds are predicted to decrease by 3.5 percent.  Some meat market analysts predict that by 2012, as new and modernized pig farming complexes reach planned capacity, pork production could reach 3.5 MMT – up 75 percent from 2008 estimates. According to the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosstat), 1/3 of all Russian “large farms” are unprofitable.  Many of these are involved in livestock production.  Small, inefficient producers are uncompetitive and have already begun disappearing from the market. The Russian veterinary service continues to playa decisive role in meat import supply management. Source - http://www.cattlenetwork.com

27.11.2012

Statistics Canada : Farm income, 2011

Realized net income for Canadian farmers amounted to $5.7 billion in 2011, a 53.1% increase from 2010. This rise followed a 19.0% increase in 2010 and a 19.6% decline in 2009. Realized income is the difference between a farmer's cash receipts and operating expenses, minus depreciation, plus income in kind. Realized net income fell in four provinces: Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Manitoba and British Columbia. In each, increases in costs outpaced gains in receipts. Farm cash receipts Farm cash receipts, which include market receipts from crop and livestock sales as well as program payments, rose 11.9% to $49.8 billion in 2011. This was the first increase since 2008. Market receipts alone increased 12.0% to $46.3 billion. Crop receipts, which increased 15.8% to $25.9 billion, contributed the most to the increase. Sales from livestock products rose 7.5% to $20.3 billion, the largest annual increase since 2005. Stronger prices for grains and oilseeds played a major role in the increase in crop revenues. For example, canola receipts increased 37.3% in 2011 on the strength of a 27.3% gain in prices. Grains and oilseed prices started rising in the last half of 2010 as a result of limited global stocks and strong demand. Even though prices peaked in mid-2011, prices for the year, on average, remained well above 2010 levels. Crop receipts rose in every province except Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador. In Manitoba, difficult growing conditions reduced marketings of most grains and oilseeds. In Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick, increases in potato prices and marketings helped push crop receipts higher. It was also stronger prices that were behind the rise in livestock receipts. Hog receipts increased 15.5% to $3.9 billion on the strength of a 14.7% price increase. Cattle prices rose 19.5% in 2011, while receipts increased 1.1% because of a reduced supply of market animals. Hog, cattle and calf prices increased in 2010. The upward trend continued throughout most of 2011, primarily because of low North American inventories and high feed grain costs. Receipts for producers in the three supply-managed sectors-dairy, poultry and eggs-increased 7.9% as rising prices reflected higher costs for feed grain and other production inputs. A 14.9% rise in chicken receipts exceeded increases for eggs (+8.7%) and dairy products (+5.3%). Program payments increased 11.2% to $3.5 billion in 2011. Increases in Quebec provincial stabilization payments as well as crop insurance payments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan accounted for much of the rise. Farm expenses Farm operating expenses (after rebates) were up 8.4% to $38.3 billion in 2011, the second-largest percentage increase since 1981. This increase followed two consecutive years of modest declines. Higher prices for fertilizer, feed and machinery fuel contributed to the increase in operating expenses. According to the Farm Input Price Index, both fertilizer and machinery fuel prices were up by over 25% in 2011. At the same time, feed grain prices increased by more than 30%. When depreciation charges were included, total farm expenses increased 8.2% to $44.1 billion. Depreciation costs rose 6.9%. Total farm expenses advanced in every province in 2011. The largest percentage increases occurred in Saskatchewan (+12.3%), Quebec (+9.5%) and Alberta (+9.0%). Total net income Total net income reached $5.8 billion, a $3.3 billion gain. There were large increases in Saskatchewan (+$2.1 billion), Alberta (+$567 million) and Ontario (+$470 million), while Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Manitoba saw declines. Total net income adjusts realized net income for changes in farmer-owned inventories of crops and livestock. It represents the return to owner's equity, unpaid labour, and management and risk. The total value of farm-owned inventories rose by $165 million in 2011. A strong increase in deferred grain payments together with the first increase in cattle inventories since 2004 contributed to the rise. Note to readersRealized net income can vary widely from farm to farm because of several factors, including commodities, prices, weather and economies of scale. This and other aggregate measures of farm income are calculated on a provincial basis employing the same concepts used in measuring the performance of the overall Canadian economy. They are a measure of farm business income, not farm household income. Financial data for 2011 collected at the individual farm business level using surveys and other administrative sources will soon be tabulated and made available. These data will help explain differences in performance of various types and sizes of farms. For details on farm cash receipts for the first three quarters of 2012, see today's "Farm cash receipts" release. As a result of the release of data from the 2011 Census of Agriculture on May 10, 2012, data on farm cash receipts, operating expenses, net income, capital value and other data contained in the Agriculture Economic Statistics series are being revised, where necessary. The complete set of revisions will be released in the November 26, 2013, edition of The Daily. Table 1 Net farm income 2009 2010r 2011p 2009 to 2010 2010 to 2011 millions of dollars % change + Total farm cash receipts including payments 44,599 44,466 49,772 -0.3 11.9 - Total operating expenses after rebates 36,052 35,315 38,276 -2.0 8.4 = Net cash income 8,547 9,151 11,496 7.1 25.6 + Income-in-kind 39 40 45 2.6 11.1 - Depreciation 5,471 5,483 5,864 0.2 6.9 = Realized net income 3,115 3,709 5,677 19.0 53.1 + Value of inventory change -281 -1,157 165 ... ... = Total net income 2,834 2,551 5,842 ... ... Table 2 Net farm income, by province Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec millions of dollars 2010r + Total farm cash receipts including payments 44,466 118 407 500 479 7,171 - Total operating expenses after rebates 35,315 106 367 422 406 5,472 = Net cash income 9,151 12 41 78 73 1,699 + Income-in-kind 40 0 0 1 1 10 - Depreciation 5,483 8 41 59 54 727 = Realized net income 3,709 4 0 19 20 983 + Value of inventory change -1,157 -0 18 0 9 13 = Total net income 2,551 4 18 19 29 996 2011p + Total farm cash receipts including payments 49,772 120 477 527 533 7,967 - Total operating expenses after rebates 38,276 114 391 448 424 6,018 = Net cash income 11,496 6 86 79 109 1,949 + Income-in-kind 45 0 0 1 1 11 - Depreciation 5,864 9 43 62 55 767 = Realized net income 5,677 -2 43 18 55 1,194 + Value of inventory change 165 -0 -12 2 -50 -24 = Total net income 5,842 -3 31 20 5 1,170 Source - http://www.4-traders.com/

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