North India cotton sowing may decrease by 20-30 per cent in the coming season as farmers have lost confidence in this commercial crop due to pest attacks in previous years. Farmers have deliberately delayed crop sowing by 15-20 days this year to avoid damage from pest attacks similar to those that occur during the late monsoon rains in late August and early September each year.

Satish Kumar, a trader from Bathinda (Punjab), told Fibre2Fashion, “The farmers are disillusioned by repeated losses from pest attacks on cotton crops, so they preferred sorghum, bajra, and moong. They have reduced the cotton area but have not given up the fibre crop completely.”

The farmers have changed their strategy to avoid damage from pest attacks by delaying cotton sowing by around 15-20 days. The trade said that there will be no loss from late rains in late August and early September if the crop is in the flowering stage. If the rain pattern remains unchanged, the cotton crop will be in the flowering stage and will not see any damage from the rain.

According to market sources, around 50-60 per cent of sowing has been completed so far. It will continue until mid-June this year due to the delay in sowing. Normally, cotton sowing begins in mid-April every year, but farmers began sowing in the first week of May this year.

Last year, cotton was sown in 6.65 lakh hectares in Haryana, 1.69 lakh hectares in Punjab, and 7.91 lakh hectares in Rajasthan. The total sowing area reached 16.25 lakh hectares in north India. According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), total production was estimated at 46.82 lakh bales with an average yield of 484.44 kg of lint per hectare. The normal cotton sowing area (2018-2022) was 6.88 lakh hectares in Haryana, 2.68 lakh hectares in Punjab and 6.30 lakh hectares in Rajasthan, with a total area of 15.86 lakh hectares in north India.

In 2022-23, the sowing area was 6.49 lakh hectares in Haryana, 2.49 lakh hectares in Punjab, and 6.83 lakh hectares in Rajasthan. Total production was 42.19 lakh bales in 15.81 lakh hectares with an average yield of 437.60 kg of lint per hectare in north India.

Higher-than-usual monsoon forecast

The latest forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted better-than-normal rain in the coming monsoon, which may hit Kerala on June 1 this year. IMD has predicted 92-108 per cent rain in June compared to the long period average (LPA). The monsoon may change its pattern in the following months due to the La Niña effect. The monsoon may hit Delhi on June 29 and Rajasthan on July 7.

The department said that the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country during June-September is likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average with a model error of +/- 4 per cent. While the monsoon will be above normal in central and southern peninsular India, below-normal rainfall is predicted in northeast India and normal in northwest India. Between 105 per cent and 110 per cent of LPA is considered ‘above normal’.

Source - https://www.fibre2fashion.com