Victoria faces a reduced threat of another horrific bushfire season this summer with wetter than average conditions expected in coming months.
But emergency services have warned against complacency, saying the threat of grass fires, crop fires and floods still looms large.
Many Victorian communities are still reeling from the summer's catastrophic fires.
Conditions in the Indian and Pacific oceans are aligning to lift the odds that damper than normal weather will continue for the eastern two-thirds of Australia for most of the rest of 2020.
The warming of the ocean off Western Australia's north are likely to favour the flow of increased moisture across the continent.
Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer Chris Hardman said grass and crop fires would take “centre stage” in the early part of the fire season. Mr Hardman said one-day bushfire events were also possible and residents of fire-prone areas should have their plans in place.
He said planned burns were being conducted throughout the year, including this week in the Wimmera.
“Whenever that opportunity to burn window opens we'll be there doing it,” he said.
State Emergency Service chief officer Tim Wiebusch said Victorian catchments were already wet, which raised the prospect of floods.
“With the potential of the La Nina this spring there's a real risk of above average rainfall and that could lead to flash flooding across our urban areas but also riverine flooding across regional Victoria,” he said.
Warmer than usual conditions in the western equatorial Pacific have lifted the chance of a La Nina later this year to 70 per cent, the times the usual likelihood.
In La Nina years, high-pressure systems typically set up in the Tasman and further south than usual, directing moisture-laden tropical air over eastern Australia.
Such years also elevate the likelihood of more tropical lows and cyclones forming in northern Australia, Dr Watkins said. The first coast-crossing cyclone is about three weeks earlier than in a usual year, raising the possibility of flooding such as was seen bewen 2010 and 2012.
A year ago, the climate influences leaned the other way, intensifying a drought across much eastern Australia and setting up record-breaking forest fires.
Emergency Management Minister David Littleproud has said there is more work to do for Australia's governments after last year's devastating bushfire season.
This year, the bushfire risk has been moderated although the good rains will also boost the threat of grass fires if there are short, dry spells that leave an increased fuel load.
According to the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook released on Monday by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, the forecast fire risk for NSW is rated as "normal" for the coming season.Windy conditions "can be a risk regardless of the temperature where grass has been cured by frost", the outlook said.
"Recent and forecast rain, combined with warm than average minimum temperatures, may provide ideal growing conditions for cropping and grassland areas," it said. The likely increase in intensity of grass fires make them "hotter, more dangerous and harder to extinguish".
For June-August temperatures, NSW was close to average but nationally it was among the 10 warmest winters on record.
Western Australia was the standout state, recording its hottest winter as well as Australia's hottest August day on record with the mercury climbing to 41.2 degrees at West Roebuck on August 23. That beat the previous August high by 1.2 degrees, which a "quite significant" margin, Dr Watkins said.
Locked down Melburnians pining for the piste might be cheered to know that the snow season has generally been poor, although there was an outbreak of Antarctic cold late in August.
Source - https://www.theage.com.au
