Australia's grain growers have planted the largest area of winter crop on record, but the threat of the mouse plague hangs heavily over New South Wales.
The latest outlook from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Research and Resource Economics Sciences (ABARES) shows more than 23 million hectares has been sown — two per cent more than last year.
Production is forecast to hit almost 47m tonnes, which is 15 per cent lower than the record winter harvest of 2020-2021.
"We're not going to be as big as last year but we are going to be very much above average when you look at the averages over the last 10 years," ABARES senior economist Peter Collins said.
"Even though the yields won't be quite as good as last year, when they were exceptional, with the big planted area and the good season opening and also the outlook for winter rainfall, all of those things are driving an overall pretty good year for winter crops."
The outlook shows that Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland all enjoyed strong starts to the season.
"People in WA have been telling us that it's been as good as season opening as what they've ever had," Mr Collins said.
Drier weather in South Australia and Victoria affected their starts to winter but production in both states is not expected to be far off their long-term averages.
$1b toll predicted
The NSW Farmers' Association estimates the mouse plague will knock $1 billion off the value of that state's winter crop.
But Mr Collins said ABARES does not believe the mice would significantly impact the harvest.
He said baiting had increased production costs and would reduce farmers' margins.
"There is a risk though, if conditions are ideal for them at the end of winter and coming into spring, their numbers could explode again and that would pose a risk to the crops as they're going into the grain formation stage," Mr Collins said.
Ant Martin at Cassilis in the NSW Central West is among the farmers who has lost summer crops to mice.
When he went to harvest his 100 hectares of sorghum, there was barely a shovel full of grain to strip.
"I couldn't believe it," Mr Martin said.
"I've seen them eat some but to eat the whole lot was just a shock."
He had been expecting a bumper harvest, but agronomists gradually revised his yield down from nine tonnes per ha to about five tonnes.
Mr Martin said he had not sustained damage a pest in this way before.
"This is certainly the worst for us," he said.
Mr Martin's experience is being repeated across western NSW, with farmers reporting a total loss of summer crops despite repeated rounds of baiting.
The ABC has been told of instances where landholders have lost canola plantings in a matter of hours.
Some farmers have also had to re-sow winter crops because freshly emerging shoots have been eaten.
Fears for spring
Landholders in the state's south and north have fared better, with some crediting the heavy rain and flooding for their fortunes.
"I think they would have needed a snorkel and flippers and good set of scuba gear to have survived the rainfall that we had at the beginning of the year," Barmedman farmer John Minogue said.
"But we're still monitoring."Mr Minogue said his crops had escaped significant damage so far, but the mice had been "atrocious" around his sheds and house.
"At the house we've been going through 10 kilograms of bait a week," he said.
Sam Heagney at Moree, in the state's north west, said major flooding earlier this year had helped boost soil moisture and gone some way to reducing mouse numbers.
"It certainly didn't wipe them out like we were hoping — it wasn't that successful," he said.
He is planting wheat, barley and chickpeas.
"Our big worry is that if the mouse plague isn't sorted out over winter we'll be in a lot of trouble in spring," he said.
The CSIRO says burning stubble and clearing paddocks of debris removes the rodents' habitat and food source.
But farmers say this comes at the expense of soil moisture and could just move the mice to another paddock or farm.
Source - https://www.abc.net.au