A new study published has said most of the existing habitats of the Nilgiri Tahr in the Western Ghats will not be suitable due to global warming effects. There are only 3,000 Nilgiri Thars left in the country. The study, which published in Ecological Engineering, looked into climate scenarios over a course of three time-frames (2030s (2021–2050), 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099)). The study looked at 10 Tahr habitats during 2010-2011. The Nilgiri Tahr is an endangered, hoofed mammal endemic to the Western Ghats. The Nilgiri Tahr is the only mountain ungulate in the country among 12 other similar species. Historically, the Nilgiri Tahr has been found everywhere in the Western Ghats, but currently only 3,000 exist and their habitat is restricted to one tenth of their original range. Currently, they are found only in southern Western Ghats in an altitude range of 1100 mt to 2600 mt. The study comes at a significant time as there has been a continuous decline in Tahr population, owing to hunting, conflict with livestock, grazing and habitat loss over the years and no study till date has looked into the likely effect of climate change on Nilgiri Tahrs. The study, authored by R K Sony and Sandeep Sen of Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment and co-authored by Sunil Kumar, Monalisa Sen and KM Jayahari, is the first-of-its kind to use the ecological niche model to predict the species distribution of Tahr in varying climate scenarios. The model uses the relationship between a species and its habitat to identify potential species distribution. The future climate projections in the study were based on two scenarios, the first scenario represented an optimistic emission rate, with peaking of emissions by 2040, while the second scenario represented continuous rise in emissions all through the 21st century. The study predicted a maximum habitat loss of 61.2 per cent, 61.4 per cent and 63 per cent for 2030, 2050 and 2080 respectively if emissions did not reduce. “The present study has to be observed against the backdrop of this identified vulnerability of the species to local extinction. In the absence of the data on the movements of these animals between the high-altitude forest grasslands separated by thick forest barriers, the possible impacts on the habitat suitability are increasing the chances of local extinction since the animals may then not be able to move to suitable habitats from the existing ones,” said, Jayahari KM, principal investigator of the study. According to the study, the protected areas are expected to experience a drastic habitat loss owing to climate change. While the protected area network within the Western Ghats is suitable for the Nilgiri Tahr in the current scenario, the study predicted that over 60 per cent of this network will become unsuitable due to warming. RK Sony, one of the authors of the study, said, “Conservation and management of suitable habitats outside the existing protected area network will be helpful to curb the effect of climate change on Tahr as well as its associated species.” “The outcomes are extremely warning in nature even though GIS-based modelling studies are not conclusive. Our study unearths the possibilities of severe threat to the natural habitats of these species, which demands a comprehensive species management plan. Detailed habitat based ecological observations and Genetics studies are inevitable for development of such management strategies,” said, Sandeep Sen, co-author of the paper. The study also forewarns that the existing protected area network might not be effective in conserving the Tahr if climate mitigation measures are not adopted in management plans of protected areas. Source - https://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com