From flooded farm fields in Mississippi to monsoon rains causing flash floods across the Midwest, what started out as a dry June, saw an extreme finish.
“I can assure you heading forward there are going to be some areas - running right through the heart of the Midwest - that are going to be a little bit too wet by the time we get to the fourth of July, meaning we'll be experiencing lowland flooding and some loss of nitrogen just by leaching,” says USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.
A soggy finish to June for some, with just the right amount of rain relief for others, while dryness remains parked over the northern Corn Belt and the entire West.
“I would say the best forecast for July is persistence, meaning what you see now is what you get for weather,” Rippey adds . “In the West, it’ll be mostly dry except for a few monsoon showers. And in the Midwest, there will be a big gradient between dry and hot in the North and West, and cooler and wetter as you move to the South and East.
For farmers in the Pacific Northwest, it’s a double dose of record heat and muted moisture creating concerns as the calendar turns to July.
“Typically we might get one day year over 100 degrees and maybe get 15 days that are over 90,” says Dan Lewis, a farmer in western Oregon. “But we could have 15 days in a row that are over 90 degrees, which is which is unheard of.”
Lewis says in March through May moisture was short, prompting farmers in his area to irrigate early. And while it’s dry in the western half of Oregon, it’s the eastern half of the state - into Washington, Idaho and Montana - where the concerns over crop failure are grave.
“I'm hearing stories of growers that have some things on dryland fields that have literally just dried up,” Lewis says.
Record Heat and Little Rain
The extreme heat is another headline for the West this summer.
“The worst news is the hot weather is expected to continue virtually throughout the West, all through the summer and into the autumn months,” Rippey says .
As record heat is already in the books in the Northwest, with scorching temperatures and little rain taking a toll on crops.
“These areas are already incredibly suffering. Rangeland and pastures, winter wheat, spring sown crops, those are all in dire shape,” says Rippey. “This is going to be the finishing touch on those crops. It's going to be the final nail. And we're just not going to have much small grain production coming out of the Northwest because of this punishing spring and early summer heat and drought."
Rippey says the outlook for July isn’t promising, as models show little rainfall for the area.
“On into the rest of the summer, I’m not seeing a whole lot of relief coming in the way of the far upper Midwest and the northern plains,” Rippey says.
Farmers in the Northern Plains are seeing the worst crop condition ratings on record for crops like spring wheat and barley.
“We're seeing our lowest crop conditions of the century, which is only two decades old, but still lowest crop conditions of the century for spring wheat for barley across the Northern Plains,” Rippey says.
Contrast in the Corn Belt
As the Northern Plains stays dry, other agricultural meteorologists also expect July to bring more chances of rain to much of the Midwest.
"It'll be quite a contrast between what happens in the northwestern one-third of the region and the rest of the area,” says Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc.
“Iowa always seems to be kind of ground zero for that transition zone,” Rippey says. "We're likely to stay a bit on the dry side in the far north and west. But as you move to southeastern Iowa, it’s probably going to be too wet.
Portion of Corn Crop to See Constant Shots of Rain
Lerner says that wetter weather pattern that blanketed much of the Midwest to end June, will be the recipe to help with frequent showers throughout the first half of July.
“We're going to be adding so much moisture to the soil that as we dry down and heat up, we're going to pull the moisture back out of the soil and create more shower and thunderstorm activity,” Lerner explains.
Lerner says the chance for frequent rains across the central and southern Corn Belt will also be key to help aid much of the corn crop through pollination.
“We'll put enough moisture in the ground to support corn development through at least the middle of July,” says Lerner. “Now we may dry down after that if there's no additional moisture, but I kind of have my doubts it is going to be absolutely dry. So, the odds are fairly good the corn crop, especially that was which was planted early will go through pollination without any big issues in that part of the Midwest."
Lerner expects favorable corn crop production weather in states like Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and eastern Illinois, with far northern Iowa, the Dakotas and Minnesota seeing the opposite weather forecast for July.
“About one-third of the Corn Belt is probably going to be subjected to some stressful conditions, and we'll lose a little yield,” Lerner says . “The farther northwest you go, the more dramatic that'll be. But places like Illinois and Indiana will have some very nice yields, I think.”
Eric Snodgrass, atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the June rains helped relieve crop stress in those key crop production areas.
“This wet weather we finished June with buys a lot of time,” says Snodgrass. “So, we've kicked the can down the road that we're worried about drought across a broad sector of the midwestern Corn Belt.”
Late July Forecasts Could Turn Drier
Snodgrass says even as the wet weather pushes the drought threat deeper into the season for that area, this year’s crops aren’t in the clear yet.
“That doesn't mean we can't get problems in the month of July,” he says . “And I’ll tell you something, if you want to know when those problems are going to arise, watch the Aleutian Islands, and watch south in Greenland because in between those two areas set up with ridges, we tend to get one right here in the midsection of the country, as well. We call it the triple ridge pattern, and it could bring us a drier time period in July."
Even if the weather turns off dry in July for the midwestern Corn Belt, the recent moisture means crops are better equipped to withstand it.
“Some of the great holding capacity that our soils have, could allow us to endure - especially through pollination - some of the issues we could get with drier conditions once we get out there into that second or third week of July.”
Active Hurricane Season
While much of the Midwest could see moisture, the Southeast is bracing for what’s expected to be an active hurricane season.
“Most long-range forecasts are between 100% and 150% of normal on this upcoming hurricane season,” says Snodgrass. “And what's crazy is the peak of that hurricane season is Sept. 15. So, we are just at the very beginning of it, and we've got time to be watching for quite a bit of activity.”
Worries Continue for Western U.S.
From too much moisture to not enough, crops and rangeland in the far West is already succumbing to drastic dryness.
“I really don't have much good news at all for the Western U.S.,” says Rippey. “We've already seen our sixth largest modern wildfire in Arizona state history, the telegraph fire east of Phoenix, has burned over 180,000 acres. And unfortunately, I think that’s a sign of things to come.”
Snodgrass says with multiple years of drought for areas of the West, the wildfire risks are a grave concern.
“Well, the problem was is the past winter ranked fifth driest on record,” adds Snodgrass. “So, we almost need two full winters worth of precipitation just to get back to normal, and the likelihood of that happening without an El Niño developing is relatively limited.”
July Extremes
From drought in the West, to rains in portions of the East, July is shaping up to be another month of wild weather.
“Last year, it wasn't until July 11 that we started to talk about drought in Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois for August,” says Snodgrass. “So, just remember, we could buy time, but what about grain fill? That’s a critical time period, as well.”
As the July weather starts to play out, farmers in the Northwest hope to hold on to what they have.
“Well, at least here in the Willamette Valley, it's not going to be a total loss,” says Lewis. “I mean, we're going to have crops are going to be decent, but I think yields are going to be off.”
Source - https://www.agweb.com
