“We know that 2019 was a year filled with uncertainty for the agricultural sector. While the U.S. economy continued to grow, producers were faced with one challenging uncertainty after another,” Johansson said. “Weather conditions were terrible for planned production — it was the wettest year on record and it was also the hottest year on record for many areas; it was the coldest, slowest planting season resulting in the most prevent plant recorded; we went into 2019 with record soybean stocks and uncertain demand for animal proteins globally; and underlying it all was extraordinary uncertainty about trading relationships with our primary customers. “Those conditions characterized the 2019 season, and some of those conditions persist today. However, driven by expectations of more normal conditions and finalization of several trade deals, 2020 is shaping up to be a year with less uncertainty, giving producers a better chance to plan and innovate.” The Grains and Oilseeds Outlook was prepared by members of the wheat, feed grains, rice and oilseeds interagency commodity estimates committees of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The 2020 projections assume normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development. These forecasts will be updated in the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates WASDE report. The May WASDE will incorporate farmers’ 2020 planting intentions as indicated in the March 31 NASS prospective plantings report and survey-based forecasts for winter wheat production, as well as global, country-by-country supply and demand projections. Here are the corn, soybeans and wheat highlights: Corn • The U.S. corn outlook for 2020-2021 is for record production and domestic use, increased exports and higher ending stocks. • Planted acres are projected to reach 94 million, up 5% from last year’s 89.7 million acres. • The corn crop is projected at 15.5 billion bushels, 13% above a year ago with an increase in area from last year’s weather-reduced plantings and a return to trend yields. • The yield projection of 178.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. • Despite beginning stocks forecast down from a year ago, total corn supplies at 17.4 billion bushels are forecast to be record high. • Total U.S. corn use is forecast to rise 5% from a year ago on record domestic use and a rebound in exports. • Food, seed and industrial use is projected up fractionally at 6.8 billion bushels, driven by slightly higher corn used for ethanol. • Corn used for ethanol is up less than 1% from a year ago, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and a modest increase in exports. • Feed and residual use is up 275 million bushels to 5.8 billion, with a larger crop, continued growth in grain consuming animal units and lower expected prices. • Corn exports are up 375 million bushels to 2.1 billion, reflecting expectations of global trade growth, but with continued competition from other exporters such as Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. • Ending stocks are projected at 2.7 billion bushels, up 745 million from 2019-2020, resulting in a 25 cent per bushel decline from a year ago in the season-average farm price to $3.60 per bushel. Soybeans • The 2020-2021 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush and exports and lower ending stocks. • The USDA anticipates 85 million planted soybeans acres, a 12% increase over the 76.1 million in 2019. • Soybean supplies are projected at 4.6 billion bushels, up 3% from 2019-2020 with higher production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. • Soybean production is projected at 4.2 billion bushels, 18% above a year earlier with plantings recovering from last year’s weather-related decline and a return to trend yields. • The yield forecast of 49.8 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal growing season weather. • Soybean crush is projected at a record 2.1 billion bushels, driven by higher domestic use of soybean meal that more than offsets slightly lower meal exports. • Soybean meal prices are forecast at $310 per short ton. • Domestic use of soybean oil is projected up 2% on gains for edible oil and biodiesel consumption. • With lower projected soybean oil exports, soybean oil ending stocks for 2020-2021 are projected at 1.55 billion pounds, up 2% from last year, but still low compared to recent history. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 33 cents per pound. • Soybean exports are projected at 2.05 billion bushels, up 225 million from the 2019-2020 forecast. Increasing global import demand, particularly for China, and a recovery in U.S. market share will support higher U.S. soybean exports following a sharp decline over the past two years. • Soybean ending stocks for 2020-2021 are projected at 320 million bushels, down 105 million from 2019-2020 and the lowest since 2016-2017. • With declining stocks, the soybean season-average farm price is projected at $8.80 per bushel, up only slightly from last year. However prices will remain pressured by increased South American production and export competition. Wheat • The 2020-2021 outlook for U.S. wheat is for tighter supplies, slightly lower total use and declining ending stocks. • U.S. wheat production is projected down about 4% from last year to 1.836 billion bushels on lower projected yield. • Low winter wheat plantings are supporting spring wheat prices, but persistent wet soils and unharvested corn in the Northern Plains could prevent or delay some planting. • Total wheat area for 2020-2021 is projected at 45 million acres, down 158,000 acres from the previous year and a record low. • The all wheat yield is projected down nearly 7% from last year’s near record to 48.2 bushels per acre and is based in a linear trend. • Lower beginning stocks and a smaller crop more than offset increased imports to reduce 2020-2021 supplies by 6% to 2.916 billion bushels, a five-year low. • A projected total use of 2.139 million bushels is down slightly from a year earlier, but remains above the five-year average. The year-over-year reduction stems from lower domestic use; exports are flat, but still strong at 1 billion bushels. • Forecast growth in global wheat demand supports the 2020-2021 export forecast. Reduced U.S. supplies and relatively stable use lead to substantially lower ending stocks. • At 777 million bushels, carryout for the marketing year is more than 17% below the previous year and the lowest level since 2014-2015. • The tighter balance sheet supports a 2020-2021 season average farm price of $4.90 per bushel, up 35 cents from the previous year. Source - https://www.agrinews-pubs.com