Agroinsurance

Drought threatens one of Asia’s favorite crops

A long dry season in the East has left Asia's premier tea-growing regions parched and could lead to a rise in tea prices, analysts said.The drought across Sri Lanka in the first three months of 2014 has contributed to a 50 percent fall in tea production on previously corresponding period, industry sources said. Some 400,000 small tea holders in Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts are among the worst affected, according to The Sri Lanka Tea Board."Sri Lanka is the second largest exporter of tea at 300 million tonnes," said Standard Chartered analyst Nirgunan Tiruchelvam. "In a context where tea prices have been falling – last year tea prices fell 40 percent which was the most precipitous fall in the history of the commodity – it's conceivable that tea prices are going to ascend in this context."Tea producers in Malaysia have also been hit by drought. At the Boh Plantations in the Cameron Highlands, February's crop declined 50 percent on previously corresponding period.Changing weather a concernCaroline Russell, CEO of Boh's Cameron Highlands, says there's evidence to suggest weather patterns are becoming more volatile."I think longer term there is a worry about climate change. The view is that in the tropics it is going to create greater levels of inconsistency in rainfall. One will encounter periods that are much drier and periods that are much wetter. Your total annual rainfall may not change very dramatically in the tropics. "However, its distribution will and that will have very serious effects on us," she said."In the dry periods, we would see crop yields fall but the concern in very wet periods is that we would see slope instability because we are growing tea on quite steep terrain. Of course you have incidents of landslides under those kinds of conditions, particularly if it comes after a very dry period," she added.Changing tastesCaroline believes agricultural over-development in the Cameron Highlands could also have a lasting impact on the flavor of Boh Tea."There's been a lot of land clearance for agriculture. This undoubtedly is impacting temperatures. Monitoring has shown a rise in temperatures in the Cameron Highlands, and while it isn't having a direct impact onto us immediately, in the longer term it potentially could. Ultimately one could anticipate that your flavors would be impacted," she said.But as consumption increasingly shifts to instant tea and tea mixes at the expense of traditional brews, such subtle changes in flavor are becoming less obvious."In today's context, particularly here in Malaysia, consumer lifestyles are changing so much that people don't have the same downtime. So, quite a lot of the growth areas in the tea market are in arenas of convenience," she said."We see instant tea, for example, and mixes of tea (tea combined with sugars and milk, already packaged) that you merely add hot water to, is a burgeoning market. You might say: 'well now that's not real tea', but there's no right and wrong with tea. Tea is an intensely personal product," she added.Source - http://www.cnbc.com/

Late season volume slump expected for South African apples

A combination of hail damage in Ceres and scab on Gala varieties could lead to shortages of South African apples later in the season. Although northern markets currently remain satisfied with local fruit, supplies could suffer once the Southern Hemisphere’s season comes into full swing.Fruitways product manager Jaco Moelich said South Africa is naturally in a low volume year, following last season’s bumper crop. Combined with adverse conditions, he estimated the overall crop could be down by 15%.“It’s a down crop, on top of hail, on top of scab damages. It’s a combination of all of those factors that will make fruit scarce in the second half,” he told.In the Elgin area, where Fruitways operates, he said volume appears lower than originally expected – a factor that could take buyers by surprise starting in June.“The apple crop is definitely significantly down from estimate and more down than we thought. We knew the crop would be down, but it’s definitely more down with the volumes now that we get into the big varieties. Fruit size is average to small and has been a little disappointing,” he said.Out of the Ceres area, where growers suffered the brunt of hail storms, Moelich also forecast a larger slump in volume that would become more clear to importers later in the season.Tru Cape described the Ceres hail as the worst in 50 years. Of 27 shareholders who work with Tru Cape through Ceres Fruit Growers, seven reported normal crop volume.Back in the Elgin Valley, André van den Ende, marketing director of Kromco, said fungal issues were widespread around Grabouw and would take a toll on exportable volume.“What I’ve heard is that the whole area is affected by it and that’s where the bulk of the apples are coming from,” he said.Growing African salesMoelich expected South Africa’s secondary trading markets to suffer the most from lower volume. Although exporters have established commitments with retailers in the U.K. and Europe, sales in the Middle East and Far East mostly rely on surplus volume, he explained.He pointed out that Africa has become an increasingly interesting market for apple traders. As of the 2011-12 season, in fact, Africa already accounted for 24% of South Africa’s apple exports, according to data from the Fresh Produce Exporters’ Forum.As a region, Africa comes in second to the U.K., which held a 29% share.“Africa is a significant trading area now. Africa has had a strong pull for fruit in the last few years with significant increases. If that market demand stays, it will probably slowly track significant volume into Africa,” he said.Tru-Cape managing director Roelf Pienaar also said Africa has become an increasingly appealing apple market.The company will focus a large part of its pome fruit volume on the African continent this year. By 2018, Tru-Cape hopes to distribute 17 million cartons a year of apples and pears throughout Africa and the Middle East.Excluding South Africa, Tru-Cape said Africa currently represents 18% of its pome fruit sales.“An increasingly affluent Africa will grow to almost a billion people in the next decade and we are excited about what this market will deliver. We will continue as category leader and up our growth from 952,000 to 2.4 million cartons such as we have achieved over the last 36 months,” Pienaar said in a media release.In response to hail damage, Tru-Cape has created an “ugly” fruit campaign, encouraging shoppers to purchase blemished fruit from its Ceres econopacks. A social media campaign, under the hashtag #uglypretty, asserts, “Ugly is the new beautiful.”Source - http://www.freshfruitportal.com/

India to expand irrigation to cut reliance on monsoon

India plans to expand its farmland under irrigation by at least a tenth in the next three years, potentially boosting grains output by an equal proportion in the world's second-biggest rice and wheat producer, a top government official told.The extra irrigated area would cut India's dependence on annual monsoon rains that water crops grown on nearly half of the country's farmlands. Rice, cane, corn, cotton and soybean are the main monsoon crops.Crop yields on irrigated farms are usually 2-2.5 times those in rain-fed areas. Better yields would boost exports after India shipped large quantities of rice and wheat in recent years."We have around 97 million hectares under irrigation and it's slated to go up by 10 percent by 2017. Eventually, the potential is to take this forward by almost half to 149 million hectares," A.B. Pandya, chairman of the state-run Central Water Commission, said in an interview on Monday.Higher output and productivity will also raise rural income, stoking demand for an array for consumer goods ranging from lipsticks to refrigerators.Although agriculture's share in India's nearly $2 trillion dollar economy has steadily fallen to 14 percent, the sector continues to employ more than half of its 1.2 billion people.If India manages to realise its irrigation potential, almost three-quarters of its 199 million hectares of arable land would be irrigated, leaving just a quarter dependent on monsoon rains.RESERVOIRS NEEDEDA wide range of geographies, climatic conditions and crop patterns will prohibit India from raising irrigation facilities beyond its optimum potential of 149 million hectares."I don't have an answer when are we going to realise our full irrigation potential. To realise that potential, we need new reservoirs to raise storage capacity to 450 billion cubic metres from the current 250," Pandya said.It would cost around 10,400 billion rupees ($173 billion) to boost reservoir capacity, he said.While there is no dearth of resources, issues such as land acquisition, resettlement and environmental clearances remain a prickly problem in building new reservoirs, said Pandya and his colleagues at the Ministry of Water Resources.A number of mining and industrial projects, including POSCO's $12 billion Indian steel plant have been stuck in a quagmire of legal and environmental procedures.Also, there has been stiff opposition to big dams in India that Pandya believes is a major constraint in realising the country's true irrigation potential."The voluntary groups that are opposed to dams try to couch their argument in a way that looks scientific but their basic assumption is wrong," he said.A major project to construct dams in the upper Yamuna has been stuck for the past 20-30 years, Pandya said, referring to the river that flows through the capital New Delhi.Agriculture may become more resilient because of the extra area under irrigation but the monsoon will continue to play a major role in supporting farmers' income and replenishing reservoirs.Heavy rains at the tail end of the last monsoon season have ensured water levels at 42 percent of total capacity in India's main reservoirs, a fifth higher than a year earlier and a third more than the 10-year average."More than satisfactory water levels at our reservoirs are very reassuring, especially when the new monsoon season is just round the corner," Pandya said.Source - http://in.reuters.com/

Australia - Cyclone Ita caused “minimal banana crop losses”

The Australian Banana Growers Council (ABGC) has reported industry-wide crop losses of around 5% across North Queensland’s banana plantations, as the first preliminary estimate after Cyclone Ita passed through Innisfail and Tully on Sunday morning.In a release, ABGC chairman Doug Phillips said that while the average stood at approximately 5%, some farms had registered more serious crop losses.He said there had been reports of minor losses of up to 10% cross the Tully growing region, and little damage further north at Innisfail and west of Cairns on the Atherton Tablelands.Initial reports were of total losses to the 40-hectare Hope Vale plantation, north-west of Cooktown. Four Lakeland banana farms south west of Cooktown were initially reported to have losses of between 20-50% of banana trees carrying bunches. Hope Vale and Lakeland collectively produce about 5% of Australia’s bananas.“On an industry-wide basis, initial reports are that there have been relatively minor losses. However, there have been isolated cases reported of heavier losses,” Phillips said.“The ABGC will continue to work with growers to help them assess any damage and any assistance measures that may be required.”He said it was fortunate that the cyclone weakened from a Category 4 system after reaching land, downgrading to a Category 1 by the time it affected the Atherton Tablelands, Innisfail, Tully and Kennedy growing regions.The north Queensland growing regions produce about 95% of Australia’s bananas and the Australian industry has an annual production value of AUD$500 million (US$469.9 million).Source - http://www.freshfruitportal.com/

USA - Grape growers challenged by ongoing drought

The local area has less agriculture affected by the drought than California’s Central Valley, but the dry conditions are still a big concern to the grape growers of the Santa Monica Mountains.As the drought continues, the stress upon the wine grape increases. This year’s record drought will significantly affect next year’s harvest, wine experts say.“There will be greater uncertainty this year, and chances are increased that there will be a lighter crop,” said agricultural consultant Bob Tobias of Tobias & Son.Although the low water conditions are leading to lighter crops, Tobias said, he is hoping for grapes that will produce “more intense flavors” when made into wine.In short, a little drought is good for the vineyards, but not the kind of drought we’ve been experiencing.This season’s only appreciable rain, which fell in late February and early March, produced almost 6 inches in some areas. The rain’s brief intensity caused oversaturation and erosion in some local soils and prevented it from capturing and retaining the moisture.But grape growers were pleased that the heavy rain washed away much of the salts left in the soil from previous years’ irrigation.Paso Robles grape grower and winemaker Tom Bear is taking a wait-and-see approach.“We will be managing for a regular protected crop,” Bear said. “The idea here will be to manage as you go, not deviating far from normal vineyard management practices.”The availability of well water will also determine what the crop size will be during this year’s growing season. Many of Malibu Coast’s vineyards are dependent on wells for their irrigation. This year the heavy but infrequent rain hasn’t been enough to replenish the wells.The drought, meanwhile, has led to an early bloom.In some vineyards the growers saw their first bud break in mid- February; the event normally occurs in April. Vines that bud early are susceptible to late winter, early spring frost.Tobias said the uneven bud break might lead to uneven fruit ripening.“If temperatures do not get cold enough the dormancy time is compromised, reflecting in the growth cycle of the vines,” he said. “We do know that vines will produce a better quality grape if stressed a little by lack of water, but the trick is to closely manage the vineyard, which could mean smaller crops but a more quality wine.”Every year the weather seems to throw farmers a curve. This year’s drought is forcing grape growers to micromanage their vineyards like never before.Crush timeGrapes are very fragile they can burn, shatter, develop and mold. Cultivating the plant is like tending to children: It takes a hands on approach with flexibility and foresight required.From March through November the work in the field is intense.As soon as the grape buds appear on the vines they are closely monitored up until harvest time, usually between September and November.During harvest the grapes are picked in the early morning. The cooler the air temperature, the better the grape skins will hold together. The fruit is then rushed to the winery.It is at this point in the season that it is not unheard of for winemakers to put in consecutive 14 hour days, beginning before dawn when that first container arrives.At the winery the fruit is sorted, crushed and pressed. Depending on the varietal the fermenting process can be as short as 24 hours for whites or roses or as long as a week for reds.The grapes are then transferred into barrels or stainless drums for the remaining maturation until bottling. Close attention is paid to the wine during the eight months before bottling. The product is monitored for chemical balance and tasted regularly to check development of the wine’s flavors.The wine is bottled and kept an additional eight to 12 months and then shipped for storage or sold for distribution. Some wines are better if opened at a young age, such as France’s well-known Beaujolais; others reach their peak when held for 10 to 14 years after bottling.Despite all of the hours that go into vineyard management, it is the harvest that tends to be the most crucial time in the cycle of life.A wine is only as good as the grapes that it comes from, and the grapes are always at the mercy of Mother Nature.Source - http://www.toacorn.com/

USA - Crop planting hits its stride in south as northern states lag behind

According to data collected from a series of USDA “State Crop Progress and Condition” reports, farmers in southern states have begun crop planting but this trend slows substantially in more northern locations due to unfavorable weather conditions and lasting effects of a long winter.Data gathered from Georgia’s Field Office shows there were 5 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending Sunday, April 6, 2014, as farmers planted 59% of corn, just behind the five year average (61%) for this point in time. However, moving northward, suitable days for fieldwork lessen, as Tennessee saw just 3.5 days and Missouri reported 3 days. Corn planting in Missouri trails five-year averages (2% vs. 7%) while Tennessee lags significantly behind (2% vs. 12%). The delayed start in planting and limited days of fieldwork are likely due unfavorable weather conditions and lingering winter conditions.Tim Campbell, a crop producer in Dyer County, Tennessee, says in the crop report, “Producers are still plagued with wet, rainy weather which has hindered corn planting. Wheat is progressing well after tough winter. Second fertilizer applications are basically complete, and some wheat weed control applications going out between showers and where drier fields will allow. A very few spotty acres of corn have been planted. Growers perceive that they are late with their corn planting compared to past years but we still have ample time. Everyone is just hoping for drier, sunny weather to allow for field operations.”Crop producers in northern states may have to make up for lost time as spring weather arrives in their areas, while farmers in southern states seem to be on-schedule with getting crops in the ground.Source - http://www.machinefinder.com/

Canada - Western Livestock Price Insurance applications now available

Applications are now being accepted for a new livestock price insurance product designed to help cattle and hog producers manage unexpected price declines.The Western Livestock Price Insurance Program (WLPIP), announced by federal and western provincial ministers on Jan. 24, enables livestock producers to purchase price protection on cattle and hogs in the form of an insurance policy. This new insurance product offers protection against an unexpected drop in prices over a defined period of time, and is available to producers in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.Administration costs are covered by the federal and provincial governments through Growing Forward 2 while premiums are fully funded by producers.Quick Facts- Western Cattle Price Insurance will help reduce producers’ exposure to price and basis risk. Producers have the option of insuring their calves, feeders, or fed cattle as well as selecting only basis protection for fed cattle.- Western Hog Price Insurance is designed to offer coverage based on current Western Canadian market conditions.- Alberta’s Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (AFSC) will be the central administrative body for the program to maximize administrative efficiencies.- Producers can contact their provincial AgriInsurance agency for information on how to enrol. “This spring, western cattle and hog producers are encouraged to make livestock price insurance an integral part of their business plans,” said Gerry Ritz, Federal Agriculture Minister. “Our government will continue to work with the provinces and industry to develop new and innovative risk management tools for Canada’s world-class agriculture industry.”“WLPIP is an important new risk management tool for Manitoba’s livestock producers,” Minister of Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development Ron Kostyshyn said. “Now that applications are being accepted, I encourage beef and hog producers to learn more about the program and how it can provide price protection on their farm.”“I would encourage cattle and hog producers to look closely at this program and see whether it can be a part of their risk management strategy,” Saskatchewan Agriculture Minister Lyle Stewart said. “Producers can visit their local Saskatchewan Crop Insurance office to learn more and get started.”“Alberta’s Agriculture Financial Services Corporation, along with Alberta producers, spearheaded this program,” Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development Minister Verlyn Olson said. “Expanding livestock price insurance across western Canada will benefit the livestock industry, and help producers manage price risk with flexibility and ease.”“Livestock production insurance is one more way the B.C. government has worked with our federal and provincial partners to help ranching families and the livestock sector in our province succeed,” B.C. Agriculture Minister Pat Pimm said. “This insurance means cattle and hog producers can be prepared for price fluctuations and is something all ranchers should give serious thought to including in their business plans.”Source - http://www.swbooster.com/

Turkey - Frost hits world's largest apricot supplier Malatya

Turkey's southeastern province of Malatya, the world's largest provider of apricots, has suffered heavy losses to its harvest this year due to frost that recently hit the area.Several regions of Turkey experienced frost in the final week of March after higher-than-expected temperatures and drought in the months of January and February caused fruit trees to bloom early, rendering them more sensitive to frost.The Hürriyet daily reported on Wednesday that the apricot trees in Malatya have also been seriously affected by the frost, and local producers expect a decrease of as much as 80 percent in apricot production this year. This would be the worst loss in Malatya's apricot production history, market experts underlined. They predict that the price of apricots affected by the frost will increase by at least 100 percent this year.Turkey is the leading producer of apricots in the world, producing a mammoth 795,000 tons annually (2012 figures), and a staggering 95 percent of Turkey's dried apricot production is based in Malatya. Between 65-80 percent of the world's dried apricots are estimated to originate in Malatya.Turkish Union of Agricultural Chambers (TZOB) President Şemsi Bayraktar said last week that countries such as China and Russia are likely to replace Turkey as the world's largest apricot exporters following the frost this year.Apricot production has gained economic value over the years in Malatya, with an estimated 50,000 families engaged in this business in the city. Malatya had expected to boost this year's crop by 40,000 tons compared to last year, but the recent frost might prevent this, Hürriyet reported.The daily said local producers are now demanding government subsidies for their losses. Bayraktar said 30,000 producers from Malatya have applied to their insurance companies to claim compensation for their losses.The largest regional agricultural productivity project in Turkey, the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), is expected to boost the fresh and dried apricot output from Malatya. However, experts warn that producers must be more informed about natural hazards such as frost.Source - http://www.todayszaman.com/

USA - Wheat Crop Projections Not Good

For the past five years, wheat crops have not been plentiful.The drought has made the farmer's saying "feast or famine" ring true and it looks like the famine could definitely continue this year too. Wayne Conrady says his wheat farm has a new glow after the past weekend's rain. “Everything has really bloomed up, the field we are standing in now the color was not there. It was a lot more of a blue color because of the drought and the big infestation we had,” he said. But, Conrady says that rain is not enough to make this year's crop a profitable one.He says he's hoping to maybe break even.Experts say a good crop in Texoma averages 20 to 30 bushels of wheat per acre, a number Conrady says he won't be close to seeing this year. “Talking to insurance adjusters who have gone through these wheat fields they are calling yield average way below normal, some of them even as low as a bushel and a half to two bushels per acre,” said Justin Gilliam, the Archer County Agrilife Extension Agent. Conrady says he'll feed many of his steers and his cousin's dairy cattle after he cuts and bales the wheat.He says the cattle love this wheat's fine stems.But as for business, he believes this year's crop will leave his hay room empty, just like the past several years. With a poor wheat crop, that means the high cattle prices will remain meaning grocery prices that have begun to creep up will stay as well.Source - http://www.texomashomepage.com/

USA - 2014 Planting Season Off to a Slow Start

Following the coldest winters in the United States in four years, corn planting will likely begin on schedule throughout much of the country. However, those who wanted to get into their fields early are likely disappointed."Soil temperatures are still fairly low," says Chad Hart, economist with Iowa State University. "Those who like to get out into the field haven’t been able to do that. We are right on the edge of guys getting ready to move." As of the week of April 7, Iowa soil temperatures were in the low to mid-40°F range.April 11 is the first day corn can be planted in Iowa for crop insurance purposes, and Hart expects producers, particularly those in the southern part of the state, to begin planting soon thereafter."I think planting we will get off to a slow start in Iowa, but a slow start doesn’t mean a long finish," says Hart. "It’s amazing how quickly they can get the crop in the ground. I like to joke that give us one good week, and we can get half the crop planted."Subsoil moisture in Iowa is still lacking in all but the northeastern part of the state, but that shouldn’t affect plating. Last year, Iowa also started the season short on subsoil moisture, but the state received healthy rains early in the growing season.Farther west in Kansas, fields are even drier. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor Index, the entire state of Kansas is experiencing moderate to extreme drought. Iowa and Missouri have abnormally dry to moderate drought condition."The western tier of two to three counties are growing more droughty," says Dan O’Brien, agricultural economist at Kansas State University. "We are farming by faith in western Kansas again this year."Last year, 42% of Kansas’ feed grain crop, which consists of corn and sorghum, was irrigated, leaving more than half of the state’s feed grains reliant on Mother Nature for moisture, according to O’Brien.USDA has once again resumed its seasonal Crop Progress reports. This week’s report does not yet include planting progress for the corn crop. Planting of cotton, however, was under way with 6% of the nation’s crop planted. The U.S. sorghum crop was 11% planted.Source - http://www.agweb.com/

Odds of El Nino disrupting India monsoon rise

The prospects of a disruption in India’s monsoon season worsened after the Australian Meteorological Bureau warned on Tuesday that it was very likely that the El Nino weather phenomenon would be seen this year.If this happens, it could push back the economic recovery and stoke inflation in India.The Australian Meteorological Bureau said that there was a more than 70% chance of the El Nino developing this year. El Nino, a weather phenomenon that occurs when the Pacific Ocean heats up abnormally is usually associated with deficient rainfall in India where farming is heavily dependent on June-September monsoon.The risk posed by El Nino was also flagged by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan in the monetary policy review last week. “There are risks to the central forecast of 8% CPI (consumer price index) inflation by January 2015 stemming from less-than-normal monsoon due to possible El Nino effects,” he said.After peaking in November, retail inflation based on the consumer price index has eased for three consecutive months. Retail inflation in February was 8.1%, very close to the RBI’s January 2015 target.Agriculture related commodities have almost a 50% weightage in retail inflation, and an increase in their prices, could see inflation exceeding 8%.The Australian forecast comes in the backdrop of a similar warning by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In a so-called experimental forecast—termed thus because the accuracy of the predictions at this point of time cannot be vouched for—the IMD predicted that between May and July, rainfall would be normal or deficient in most parts of South Asia with the exception of North India.Now a similar warning has been issued by the Australian Met.The update added that although the so-called El Nino southern oscillation (Enso) is currently neutral, surface and subsurface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks. The bureau said that climate models around the world are suggesting that the warming of central Pacific Ocean will continue in the coming months, and sea surface temperatures will reach El Nino levels during the summer. “The waters across the central to eastern Pacific have steadily warmed since February, with the current warming pattern consistent with an emerging El Nino,” said the weekly update.Economists are apprehensive about the effects of a poor monsoon.Samiran Chakraborty, head of India research at Standard Chartered Bank said a bad monsoon could reverse the trend of declining food prices. He caveated that it would take a few months to understand the impact of El Nino on India, as an assessment will have to be done on the ultimate impact on food production, food prices and prices of other commodities linked to agriculture.Crisil Research said in a note dated 4 March that it could revise its growth projections for 2014-15 downwards to 5.2% from 6%, if the monsoon were to get adversely affected due to the El Nino. It also said that retail inflation could rise above the 8% forecast in the current fiscal. “In its fight against weak growth and high inflation, the last thing that India’s economy needs is monsoon failure, which could drive up food inflation as well as weaken GDP growth,” it said.Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, in its latest update on Monday, said that there is about a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the summer or fall. However, an intense El Nino has not necessarily been accompanied by a drought of equal intensity.For instance, 1997-98 saw the century’s strongest El Nino, but it did not cause a drought in India. However 2002, which saw a moderate El Nino, saw one of the worst Indian droughts in the past century. It has also been observed that even though six leading droughts since 1871 occurred during EL Nino events, the presence of an El Nino event does not necessarily mean that a drought will happen.Over the years, scientists have observed that there is a correlation between warming in the central Pacific and a drought in India, but not between warming in the eastern Pacific and poor rains in India. “We have to work on the various inputs coming in from different centres and the IMD will take into consideration all these models before giving its official monsoon forecast,” said Ajit Tyagi, former Director General at IMD. “But the relationship of the El Nino and rainfall in India is not straightforward and depends on various other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.”A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), essentially an El Nino kind of phenomenon that sees a difference in temperature between the western and eastern Indian oceans, could be good for the Indian monsoon. The Australian Bureau has said that the IOD conditions are neutral as of now.According to Tyagi, the intensity of El Nino depends on the temperatures of the Pacific and how early it sets in. “The biggest challenge is that even though various models can predict the occurrence of El Nino in coming months, it is hard to predict how it will affect the rainfall in India,” Tyagi said.In the past 10 years that have seen an El Nino event, the Kharif (or monsoon crop) output was recorded to be much lower than usual. The two drought years including 2002 and 2009 saw a drop in monsoon rainfall of more than 15% and corresponding decline in Kharif output of more than 10%.Source - http://www.livemint.com/

USA - As citrus trees bloom, ‘dismal’ water year looms

Blooms are popping open in California citrus groves, putting on a show with one of the strongest flowerings in recent memory. But farmers caution the early showing doesn't necessarily translate into a large crop at harvest. Many variables come into play—and growers say an adequate water supply is their biggest concern right now."This year there's a heavier bloom around the entire circumference of the trees," said citrus farmer Larry Peltzer of Ivanhoe. "We call it a 'popcorn bloom' because flowers are popping out everywhere, engulfing the entire tree."Like many California farmers, Peltzer said lack of water is his biggest worry. His operation buys surface irrigation water from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Friant Division through the Ivanhoe Irrigation District. The district received a zero water allocation from the bureau, but will provide farmers with 0.18 acre-feet per acre from the Kaweah River, at a cost of $400 an acre-foot."That's not enough to make a difference and we're not counting on getting any more water," Peltzer said, adding that it takes 3.2 acre-feet a year to sustain an acre of citrus trees. "We have wells, but some of them are weak and the water levels are dropping. We've been told we'll have a 90-day run of water from the Kaweah River, but if it gets hot this summer, it won't help us much."To prepare, Peltzer is now harvesting as much of his valencia orange crop as possible, to take the load off the trees."Everybody in our area is facing the same situation," he said, referring to the 10,000 acres of citrus crops within the district. "It's dismal."Peltzer said he's using moisture sensor probes and monitoring irrigation schedules very carefully."Our trees are in great health, so if we can get through this summer, we can bring the 2014-15 crop to fruition," he said. "That's our goal."Citrus has been grown in the San Joaquin Valley for more than 100 years and production for the 250,000 acres of citrus trees statewide is valued at more than $2 billion a year.This year's drought comes on top of a freeze in early December 2013, when seven consecutive nights of subfreezing temperatures hit San Joaquin Valley citrus trees. California Citrus Mutual estimates valley citrus growers collectively spent $49 million to protect the 2013-14 crop, with Kern County citrus suffering the greatest amount of freeze damage. In addition, the organization said, the navel orange harvest will likely end in mid-May—more than a month earlier than usual—because of freeze damage.The cold December weather may also have affected the spring citrus bloom."This year's bloom is strong and early," said citrus grower Rod Radke of Sanger. "I'm attributing some of that to the chilling hours we got during the freeze. While causing some serious damage, the extreme cold probably had the effect of resetting the trees."Radke said citrus growing conditions have been "ideal" so far this spring."I'm not a proponent of drought, but dry conditions mean we've been able to control things in the groves a little better, and we're ahead on our pruning and trimming work," he said."If we set 6 percent of the blossoms on the trees this year, it would be a huge crop," Radke said. "But remember, these trees are very sensitive to fluctuations in the environment and a number of things can cause the tree to drop the fruit."The precise application of water to citrus trees is a moving target, he said, adding "we monitor all the time to stay within ranges related to temperatures, humidity and evapotranspiration to determine how much water to apply and when. It's an area where science and art overlap."Radke said the trees are going into the spring with a robust look, but said he worries about the outlook for water.Noting the strength of this spring's bloom, California Citrus Mutual President Joel Nelsen said the sticking point is whether growers will have sufficient water to allow the immature fruit buds to stay on the trees."The existing zero water allocation for the east side of the San Joaquin Valley has the potential to put about 50,000 acres of citrus out of production," Nelsen said. "That means navels, mandarins and lemons."After petal fall, he said, growers irrigate to ensure the immature fruit buds affix to the trees. A lot of the need for irrigation water depends on temperature: Hot and cold spikes can cause early fruit losses."A lot of factors come into play when you're trying to produce a crop," Tulare County citrus grower Keith Watkins said. "Ask me how things are going the first of November and I'll be more confident about my answer."If we end up with an inadequate water supply—and the bigger the fruit, the bigger the demand on the trees—then some growers are talking about a late pruning to take crop off," Watkins said, adding, "It's going to be challenging to make it through with nothing but well water, and not all farmers have access to underground supplies."In Tulare County, the state's largest citrus-producing county, citrus bloom has been officially declared, meaning that Agricultural Commissioner Marilyn Kinoshita has advised all citrus growers, pest control operators and beekeepers that bee-protection measures must be observed. County inspectors check the bloom in groves to determine when protections can be safely lifted.Source - http://agalert.com/

USA - ND farmers know first-hand why crop insurance is money well spent

By Diane McDonald, national media chairperson, Women Involved in Farm Economics (WIFE)INKSTER, N.D., April 8, 2014 - I've spent the last 17 years of my life farming in North Dakota and I've loved every minute of it. But it can be a very risky business. There are many steps that farmers can take to manage risk, like growing a wide variety of crops, rotating crops and growing cover crops to prevent erosion. And we do all of that.But let's face it, when we get an early August freeze, or a spring flood, or a drought, just about all of the best farming practices in the world will fail to protect us. And that is why I, like most farmers across the state, always purchase crop insurance. In fact, last year North Dakota farmers spent more than $38 million out of their own pockets purchasing crop insurance policies.It's just a smart business decision. There has never been a year when we didn't have crop insurance. Sure, it costs a lot of money, and that money could be spent elsewhere. But that would be a penny wise and pound foolish, since going through a natural disaster can cost you the farm.This isn't a hypothetical argument. In fact, last spring during planting, we had 18 inches of rain in 21 days. In between downpours, we planted what we could, but by the time the rain was finished, we couldn't get back into the fields to finish planting. In other words, we started off our growing season with only half a crop. Thankfully, our crop insurance policy covered that kind of loss. We certainly didn't make a dime from the policy, but the indemnity check helped cover the rent on the land and the lost fertilizer that had been laid on a field that couldn't be planted. The passage of the new Farm Bill this year marks a pivotal stage in U.S. farm policy. Gone are the days of direct payments and large disaster bills aimed at helping farmers after natural disasters. In its place is crop insurance, which has been embraced by farmers, farm groups and lenders alike. Farmers who don't purchase crop insurance need to realize that the federal government is no longer going to come along with an ad hoc disaster bill and bail us out. The centerpiece of the new risk management strategy on the farm is crop insurance, which is sold and serviced by private insurance companies and partially discounted by the federal government. The government's role - helping to ensure that crop insurance is affordable to farmers - has remade the face of crop insurance from a policy that for many years was largely unknown and underused to a risk management tool that last year protected 90 percent of planted cropland.Crop insurance is not only popular with farmers, but with bankers as well. In fact, most farmers need to show proof of a crop insurance policy when they meet with bankers to secure production loans. The banks realize what a risky loan they are making, and are more likely to take that risk if they have the relative protection of crop insurance.Crop insurance is good public policy for farmers, bankers and taxpayers alike. In the past, extensive droughts like what much of the nation experienced in 2012 would have triggered an enormous ad hoc disaster bill in Congress. But since the vast majority of the cropland was protected by crop insurance during the worst drought to hit the nation since the Dust Bowl days, farmers sought assistance from their crop insurance policies, not the federal government. Crop insurance, like all public policies, has its detractors, however. And before the ink is even dry on the new Farm Bill, these groups are plotting their assault on crop insurance. They have their sights set on the premium discount, the very thing that makes crop insurance affordable to farmers. Without the discount, farmers like me couldn't afford to purchase crop insurance. And if a large-scale natural disaster hits and farms across the country fail, where is our food going to come from? I don't think most Americans would want to be in a position of relying on other nations for our food, in addition to our fuel.Crop insurance is good public policy because it helps underpin farmers, who are enormous consumers and literally drive the rural economy. Americans spend about10 percent of their incomes on food, among the lowest of any country. With the proper risk management tools in hand for farmers, the promise of a safe and affordable food supply will not only be a legacy for our children, but for the world's growing population as well.Source - http://www.agri-pulse.com/

Looming Syria drought threatens food security

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) said it fears that if rainfall does not increase, drought could put the lives of millions of people at risk.According to a report published Tuesday by the WFP, during the rainy season, which is between September and April, there has been less than half of the average amount of rain."WFP is extremely concerned that up to 6.5 million people inside Syria might be severely food insecure and will require external food assistance to survive," said WFP spokeswoman Elisabeth Byrs. "We are also very concerned about the impact of a looming drought hitting the northwest of the country."The WFP report outlines how dry conditions will compound the impact of the civil war on the agricultural sector.It says wheat production, which is expected to be between 1.7 and 2 million metric tonnes, would be a record low and would also necessitate increased imports of the crop.Source - http://al-shorfa.com/

USA - More Than a Quarter of Kansas Wheat Reported to be in Bad Shape

Winter wheat in Kansas continues to deteriorate from lack of rain across most of the state.The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Monday that 27 percent of the Kansas crop is now in poor to very poor condition. About 44 percent is in fair shape, while 27 percent is in good and 2 percent in excellent condition.The report says that some farmers are planting cover crops and others are preparing fields. But the service says most farmers are still waiting for soil temperatures to warm up and hoping for rain.Corn planting is also underway in Kansas, with 4 percent of the anticipated crop now seeded.Source - http://www.krsl.com/