The Russian meteorological agency has warned that the Russians will face abnormally low temperatures in the upcoming winter. A true “Russian winter” will come to Russia. Snow fell in most of Russia as early as October 20-24, with temperature down at freezing levels.

Meanwhile, cereals remained unharvested on 6% of areas, mostly in the Asian part of the country. In particular, roughly 770 Th ha of cereals remained unharvested in Siberia and some 950 Th ha in the Urals on October 22. With average yields in these regions approximating 1.5 and 1.7 MT/ha, respectively, crop losses total about 2.8 MMT in bunker weight.

Most Russian analytical companies reduced their grain crop estimates on average by 1 MMT to 102-103 MMT. However, these estimates are not final yet.

A loss of 3 MMT of grain in Russia seems not so significant on a national scale, but it needs to be taken into account that part of the grain was harvested in unfavorable conditions – this negatively affected the quality of late-harvested Russian wheat.

In view of a bumper global grain crop in 2014/15 season, these losses are not so significant – they will only support prices for a short time. But the Black Sea region is fraught with a more considerable bullish factor able to fuel market tension up till March 2015.

The early arrival of a “Russian winter” with snow and frost from October 20-24 caused a tighter schedule of winter crop planting and hardening in both Russia and Ukraine. The degree of crop’s preparedness for winter causes serious concerns. Although weather allowed seeding 97-98% of planned area, crops had not enough time to develop adequately before entering the winter because cold set in suddenly following drought.

Source - http://www.blackseagrain.net/