Farmers in the Harden region of New South Wales are confident of a sizeable wheat crop this year, after the arrival of strong rainfall last month.

The region, about an hour north of Canberra, is considered one of the most fertile and reliable wheat growing areas in Australia.

Agronomist Tim Condon said after a dry summer, the autumn rain was a welcome relief for growers in the area.

"For the month of April, we've actually had between 50 and 80 millimetres, our long term average is about 45 to 50," he said.

"So we've had really good opening rains throughout April, and this is our main sowing window."

That relief has been shared by fifth generation wheat farmer, Rob McColl.

"It's in the blood, we know what we're doing, roughly," he said with a smile.

"Autumn's always very erratic here, so we'll take every opportunity we can to plant, even when we're not quite sure how much moisture's below.

"With the moisture that we have now, we'll plant with confidence."

El Nino forecast has experts concerned

But that confidence could dissipate, depending on rainfall levels throughout the remainder of the year and the possibility of an El Nino weather event.

"With the forecast of an El Nino this spring, getting the front end of the cropping system right is important," Mr Condon said.

"So getting your crop established on time, with all the right herbicides and nutritional strategies to get the crop in, and up and established."

Mr Condon said farmers needed consistent spring rainfall to turn a profit.

"It means the difference between a yield of 2.5 tonne, and 5 tonne [from] a hectare of wheat, and that top end yield is where all the profit comes from."

Profit levels will also rely on production levels in the United States and Europe, which will have a major impact on the prices local growers receive for their crops.

Grain broker Graham Martin-Dye said despite predictions that the US wheat price could double by the end of the year, local growers should be cautious in their optimism.

"Because we've had our rain here, and we look like we're going to have a fairly good year, at the moment, it is still fairly early days, if the US price does rally we may not rally as much," he said.

Source - http://www.blackseagrain.net/