In a promising trend that increases the likelihood of steady storms this winter that could ease California’s historic drought, federal scientists on Thursday reported that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean are continuing to grow stronger.
The probability of an El Niño — defined as warmer water at the equator and shifting winds that can bring major weather changes — being present through the end of 2015 is now 85 percent, up from 80 percent last month, and 50 percent three months ago, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“The big takeaway is that obviously El Niño has strengthened,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director for NOAA’s climate prediction center in College Park, Maryland.
“We are more confident that it is going to last through the rest of the year, and at this point, we’re slightly favoring a strong event.”
Most important: Trade winds are shifting in ways consistent with prior big El Niños, and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator are now 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average in all five zones that El Niño researchers study, a trend not seen since 1997 when a California was hit was drenching rains and floods the following winter.
To be sure, there are still six months before California’s winter rainy season. Many of those are expected to be brutally dry and hot summer months, with high fire risk. And scientists say promising El Niños have fizzled out in the past, most recently last year.
“El Niño is a bad boy, and sometimes he disappoints. He could abandon us at the altar. It’s not a sure thing at this point,” said Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
“But it’s probably a good idea to clean out the flood control channels in preparation for January.”
WATER WARNING
California water officials have worried that news of a building El Niño could cause state residents to ease off water conservation. That could cause emergency shortages next year if El Niño doesn’t deliver a very wet winter, they note, given the state’s low reservoirs, depleted groundwater, rainfall deficits and non-existent snowpack after four years of historic drought.
“Very few of us would empty our bank accounts today on the hopes of hitting the lottery next winter,” said Doug Carlson, a spokesman for the state Department of Water Resources. “And in the same vein, we can hope for rain, but we have to continue to conserve today.”
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