Weather forecasts for November do not show a significant change in overall conditions, with scattered rains in central-north areas and downpours in the south likely compromising Brazil's 2024 soy yields and output, analysts say.

However, it is early to determine whether soy will definitely be spoiled in the world's biggest supplier of the oilseed.

"Perhaps this complicated planting start takes away some of the shine from the soy harvest, but there is still a long way to go," said AgRural analyst's Alaide Ziemmer. "I still believe that if the weather cooperates, we can have a good harvest."

Safras & Mercado analyst Luiz Fernando Roque said that concerns still exist but that it's "still early to talk about soy output and yield losses."

If weather problems persist throughout December, analysts will have to start lowering projections, Roque added.

The slow pace of Brazil's soybean planting given lack of rains in some areas and excess rain in others also raises risks for second corn and cotton, because they are planted after the soy harvest and could be forcibly sowed outside the ideal climate window, according to analysts.

Roque said the situation could lead farmers to plant second corn on a smaller area.

Brazil's soybean production is expected to grow 4.8% in 2023/24 to a record 162 million metric tons, according to crop agency Conab, which will release a new grain forecast on Thursday.

For Cogo Intelligence in Agribusiness, soy is a resilient crop and potential losses cannot be estimated at this point. "See what happened with this year's U.S. harvest," Partner Carlos Gogo said.

StoneX's analyst Ana Luiza Lodi said that despite concerns about the weather, there is not clear indication of crop failure.

On Nov. 1, StoneX raised the forecast for Brazil's soybean harvest to 165 million tons, driven by an increase in the planted area.

Source - https://www.nasdaq.com