El Nino conditions ruled the 2023 growing season, and Scott Chalmers, Applied Research Specialist for Manitoba Agriculture in the Melita area, says that trend is likely to continue in 2024. 

In fact, going into 2050, Chalmers says we can expect 450 more crop heat units on average per year.  

“This is where climate change is taking us,” notes Chalmers. 

“So, keeping this in mind I think it’s probably a good idea to start banking on more warm-season crops in the area, like corn. Soybeans are a decent choice, but they don’t really reach for water in the deep, like maybe a sunflower could,” he says. 

The current climate models indicate that the heat units will increase, however the precipitation will remain the same, and it’s important to note that this past summer we had approximately half the amount of precipitation than previous years. 

“So, if you can imagine it getting warmer but not wetter, you can imagine where that’s going to go and take the crop,” he explains. “We’re just going to get drier and drier. So, we’re going to have to be on our toes with this one.” 

As corn is a thirsty plant that requires moisture, and it is a high commodity crop world-wide, researchers are actively looking at ways to either grow the crop earlier in the year or grow tolerance and earlier maturing, so it conserves water more efficiently. 

“This is really exciting research where we are trying to adapt the crop to the conditions and move it kind of northwest,” notes Chalmers. 

Keeping these growing conditions in mind corn will do better than, say, soybeans, because the root system runs deep, and the plant will search for that moisture.  

The root system of the soybean plant stays within that 2-foot level and struggles more with the lack of rainfall, especially in the long stretches of dryness like we experienced last summer. 

The added benefit of corn is that it will shut down their leaf openings and so it will naturally preserve moisture during hot spells, he says. 

Looking at cereal grains Chalmers says the researchers are looking at barley varieties that can be sown earlier, say in March, and then mature earlier as well. 

“For example, ultra-early seed barley is a project we could be getting into in 2025,” he explains. “Looking at seeding in March and waiting for it to find the right conditions to germinate, and when it does it’ll be maybe 10 days earlier than our normal spring barley, not only for emergence but for maturity.”  

“So, we’re just trying to get around the heat balance and adapt to what’s coming,” he adds. 

Source - https://www.discoverwestman.com