Rabi crops have suffered estimated losses of 15–25 per cent, officials say, as an unusually dry winter raises concerns over glaciers and water security.

Uttarakhand and the wider Central Himalayan region are experiencing an unusually dry winter marked by a near absence of rain and snowfall, triggering crop losses, forest fires and concerns about long-term impacts on glaciers.

The state is facing a hydrological drought, with no significant precipitation recorded so far this winter. Scientists warn that the lack of snow could push the mass balance of glaciers in Uttarakhand into negative territory, meaning they lose more ice than they gain.

Rabi crops are drying up across several districts, while forests in high-altitude areas have seen fires break out despite freezing night-time temperatures. In Chamoli district, the administration has sought assistance from the Air Force to help extinguish forest fires.

Crops already damaged

The impact of the drought is already visible on agriculture and horticulture.

Dinesh Panwar, director of the Uttarakhand Agriculture Department, said preliminary assessments suggest crop losses of 15-20 per cent in districts including Chamoli, Tehri and Bageshwar. Wheat crops have suffered around 15 per cent damage, he said, warning that losses could rise if rainfall does not occur soon.

The department has instructed officials to monitor conditions across all districts. Under existing rules, compensation is provided only if crop damage exceeds 33 per cent.

‘False spring’ conditions

Former agriculture protection officer B D Sharma said around 90 per cent of Uttarakhand’s agriculture is rain-fed, making it particularly vulnerable to prolonged dry spells.

“Moisture has evaporated from the soil, and seeds are unable to germinate,” he said.

Horticulture, especially apple cultivation, is also under stress. Apples require a minimum number of chilling hours during winter. In high-altitude areas such as Harshil, a major apple-growing region, night-time temperatures are falling to minus 10°C, but strong sunshine during the day is pushing temperatures up to 15°C. In some lower areas, daytime temperatures are reaching 20°C.

This combination creates a “false spring” signal for plants, increasing the risk of premature and irregular flowering. The lack of moisture is also expected to affect fruit size and quality, with apricots and plums likely to be smaller and less fleshy.

Rainfall and snowfall collapse

Data from the India Meteorological Department shows a sharp decline in winter precipitation.

In 2021, Uttarakhand recorded three to four feet of snowfall. This fell to one to two feet in 2022. Between 2023 and 2025, snowfall declined further to just three inches to one inch, and in 2026 it has so far been almost negligible.

Rainfall has followed a similar pattern. Winter rainfall stood at 182 mm in 2021, a record for that year. It dropped to 12 mm in 2024 and 4 mm in 2025. So far this winter, no rainfall has been recorded.

Changing western disturbances

Rohit Thapliyal, a meteorologist at the IMD in Dehradun, said the frequency and intensity of western disturbances — weather systems that bring winter rain and snow to the Himalayas — have declined between 1980 and 2020.

“Snowfall that used to begin in late December is now happening in February,” he said. This 30-40 day delay, combined with fewer active systems — now often just two or three per season — has resulted in an estimated 70 per cent reduction in snowfall.

Glaciers under threat

Manish Mehta, a glaciologist at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, said that while parts of Kashmir, Zanskar and Ladakh have received snowfall this winter, Uttarakhand has experienced a prolonged dry spell.

“This raises the risk of a negative glacier mass balance,” he said. Reduced snowfall and rising temperatures accelerate glacier melt and can lead to the expansion of existing glacier lakes.

The number of supraglacial lakes — water bodies that form on the surface of glaciers — may also increase, posing longer-term environmental and safety concerns.

Jagdish Chandra Kuniyal, a former scientist at the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, said snowfall in February and March often melts quickly because of higher temperatures.

“Such snow does not help recharge glaciers,” he said. “Delayed snowfall may please tourists, but it is not beneficial for glaciers.”

Forest fires spread

One of the most immediate consequences of the dry winter has been the outbreak of forest fires.

Fires have been reported in the buffer zone of Nanda Devi National Park, as well as in the Gangotri Valley and the Valley of Flowers region.

Forest Range Officer Chetna Kandpal said forest department teams were deployed on the ground. Chamoli District Magistrate Gaurav Kumar confirmed that the state government had been approached to seek assistance from the State Disaster Response Force and the Air Force to control the fires.

Officials warn that unless rainfall or snowfall occurs soon, the combined effects on agriculture, forests and glaciers could deepen, with longer-term consequences for water availability in the Himalayan region.

Source - https://www.downtoearth.org.in