Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour on Thursday projected spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 47.4 bushels per acre as farmers grapple with an expanding drought.

The figure was above the Wheat Quality Council tour's five-year average of 40.1 bushels but down from the 2022 tour's estimate for 49.1 bushels. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is projecting North Dakota's spring wheat yield at 47 bushels per acre.

Grain traders and exporters are monitoring conditions of spring wheat, used in foods ranging from pizza crusts to bagels, after Russia ignited global supply concerns by quitting the deal that allowed for safe Ukrainian crop exports from Black Sea ports. Russia and Ukraine are both wheat exporters.

Other major shippers are suffering from drought.

On North Dakota's farms, dryness worsened in recent weeks. Drought Monitor data issued on Thursday showed 44% of the state's spring wheat was in drought areas as of Tuesday, up from 32% a week earlier and 24% two weeks ago.

"I'm surprised the yields are as high as they are," said Randy Martinson, president of Martinson Ag Risk Management in Fargo, North Dakota. "I do think there are going to be some lower yields if we don't see some follow-up rains."

North Dakota will probably continue to receive lighter-than-normal rainfall, though most crop damage from dryness is likely factored in, said Drew Lerner, president of forecasting company World Weather Inc.

"We're just not going to have the moisture that everyone wants," he said.

U.S. millers and bakers have been hoping for a good crop to offset harvest losses from drought in Kansas and the southern U.S. Plains hard red winter wheat belt.

The USDA projects North Dakota's spring wheat harvest at 255.21 million bushels, down from 263 million bushels last year.

The tour scouted 318 fields of spring wheat, 21 durum wheat and four hard red winter wheat fields over three days.

Source - https://www.agriculture.com