The Ukrainian Grain Association estimates the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2024 at the level of 76.1 mln tonnes. This figure will be lower compared to previous year, which, according to the association's estimates, was 82.6 mln tonnes, the UGA press service reported.
As explained, the current forecast is based on the average weather conditions for the last 5 years, so improvements or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer may make adjustments. The potential decrease in the harvest in the new season will be caused by the reduction of planting areas mainly under grains due to unfavorable price conditions on the global market and relatively expensive export logistics.
"Under such conditions, exports in 2024/25 MY may amount to about 43.7 mln tonnes. In the current season, according to UGA's assessment, the export of grains and oilseeds can reach 53.1 mln tonnes under the conditions of uninterrupted operation of the Ukrainian sea corridor and the Danube route," the message states.
UGA forecasts the wheat harvest in 2024 at the level of 20 mln tonnes (22 mln tonnes in 2023). The potential grain export in 2024/25 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, carryover stocks will amount to 2.4 mln tonnes. The barley harvest in 2024 may amount to 4.6 (5.8) mln tonnes, and the potential export in 2024/2025 MY can be expected at the level of about 2 mln tonnes (forecast for the current season is around 2.5 mln tonnes).
“Expectations for the new season's corn crop are deteriorating due to a potential reduction in corn acreage. Agricultural companies bear losses due to too low purchase prices for it, which are caused by a downward price trend on the global market. Therefore, UGA forecasts the corn harvest at the level of 26.3 mln tonnes, down 3 mln tonnes y-o-y. At the same time, the potential corn export may amount to about 20.5 mln tonnes (in the current season, exports are expected at the level of 26 mln tonnes) ", analysts note.
According to UGA, the sunflower seed harvest in 2024 can be expected at the level of 13.7 (14.2) mln tonnes, and the potential export can be up to 250 thsd tonnes (0.4 mln tonnes are expected in the current season). At the same time, the processing of sunflower seed for oil can reach almost 13.6 mln tonnes against 13.5 mln tonnes in current MY. Rapeseed production can be expected at the level of 4.2 mln tonnes (a little more than 4.3 mln tonnes in 2023), while its export in 2024/2025 MY may be at the level of the current season - 3.6 mln tonnes.
"As for soybeans, it is nearly the only crop in Ukraine under which farmers can increase the area due to its profitability this year. In 2024, soybean harvest can be expected at the level of 5.5 mln tonnes (4.9 mln tonnes in 2023). The potential export in 2024/2025 MY may reach 4 mln tonnes (in the current season, it is expected at the level of 3.3 mln tonnes)," the message summarizes.
Source - https://www.apk-inform.com
