Agroinsurance

2019 may be the hottest year yet - here's why

An El Niño event is very likely under way, amping up extreme weather already made worse by climate change and increasing the odds that 2019 will be the hottest year in recorded human history, scientists warn. There is an 80 percent chance a full-fledged El Niño has already begun and will last until at least the end of February 2019, according to the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The impacts of El Niño have been more severe in recent years because of global warming, and these impacts will be worse as temperatures continue to rise, according to a recent study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. “With an El Niño, it’s entirely possible 2019 will be the hottest year ever,” said co-author Samantha Stevenson, a climate scientist at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The top four hottest years have been among the last four, 2015-2018, driven by increased emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2)—which have also reached record levels, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The Earth’s climate has been warmer than the 20th Century average over the last 406 consecutive months. That means no one under the age of 32 has ever experienced a cooler-than-average month. “Every fraction of a degree of warming makes a difference to human health and access to food and fresh water, to the extinction of animals and plants, to the survival of coral reefs and marine life,’’ said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Elena Manaenkova. The dangers of heat A warmer world means more and greater extremes in destructive and dangerous weather, such as heat waves, wildfires, droughts, flooding, and violent storms. There were 70 tropical cyclones or hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere in 2018, compared with the long-term average of 53. Powerful and often record-breaking storms brought devastation to the Mariana Islands, Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, and Tonga. In the U.S., hurricanes Florence and Michael caused huge economic damage and considerable loss of life, the WMO noted in its annual climate statement. Heat waves resulted in an astounding loss in productivity in 2018, because it was often either too hot to work or even go outside safely. An incredible 153 billion hours of labor were wiped out last year due to heat waves, nearly three times more than 2000, according to the 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change released November 28. The most recent El Niño event ended in 2016, and it was associated with catastrophic coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, severe droughts in Africa, South America and parts of the Pacific and southeast Asia, and wildfires in Indonesia and Canada. While the current El Niño is not expected to be as severe, it could still bring dangerous weather to vulnerable areas around the world, scientists warn. El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, form a natural cycle that can last from a few months to two or three years. When they occur, weather patterns around the world can be affected, producing a range of impacts on crop yields, famine, heating, and cooling demands of homes and buildings, fire risks, coral bleaching, and extreme weather. Researchers say the impacts of El Niño/La Niña events have become more severe over the past 20 years due to a warmer climate. This is akin to a baseball player on steroids who takes stimulants during the play-offs. The combination of human-caused warming and a natural upswing in temperatures increases the odds that any new El Niño year will be the warmest ever, said climate scientist Michael Mann from Pennsylvania State University. Mann co-authored a 2018 study linking climate change to the recent run of record-breaking droughts, heat waves, wildfires, and flooding events in the northern hemisphere. These destructive weather extremes will increase 50 percent on average and may increase as much as 300 percent due to climate change alone unless the world acts quickly to cut carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, the study concluded. Normally, El Niño events bring heavy rains to California, and if that happens this winter it could lead to flash flooding and mud slides after wildfires burned 1.6 million acres this fall, said Stevenson. Nearly 14,000 homes were destroyed in those fires and now the first storms of the season have already produced flooding and mud slides. While El Niño brings rain and cooler weather to the southern U.S., it brings heat and drought to Australia, as well as dry winter conditions in southeastern Africa and northern Brazil. Catastrophic wildfires have already broken out in eastern Australia, along with a heat wave with temperatures over 111 degrees F (44 degrees C) at the end of November. As global warming continues future El Niño events will likely result in even cooler and wetter conditions in the U.S., enhancing flood risks. Meanwhile, La Niña events will increase wildfire danger and drought in the southwestern United States, Stevenson said. While the impacts of El Niño/La Niña events are amplified in a warmer world, it’s not known whether climate change will affect the occurrence or strength of these events in the future, she said. What causes El Niño events? La Niña and El Niño are, respectively, the cold and warm phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which regulates heat in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In conditions defined by climatologists as "neutral," high air pressure predominates in the eastern Pacific, while low pressure predominates in the west. The difference in pressure generates the trade winds, which blow east to west over the surface of the tropical Pacific, pushing the warm waters westward. The deeper, cooler waters then surface in the east, replacing the warm waters. During episodes of La Niña, the differences in pressure are more marked, the trade winds blow more strongly, and the cold-water currents in the eastern Pacific intensify. On the other hand, during El Niño, high surface air pressure in the western Pacific and lower pressure on the coasts of the Americas cause the trade winds to weaken or change direction, resulting in warmer water temperatures in the eastern Pacific. It was Peruvian fishers who named El Niño after the Christ child ("niño" means child or boy in Spanish), since the effects of the warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific ocean—such as bringing rain to the dry Peruvian deserts—show up around Christmas. Over months, and sometimes years, the heat in the surface layer of the Pacific dissipates and the deeper colder water gets to the surface, aided by changes in the trade winds. This results either in a return to neutral conditions or the appearance of La Niña ("girl" in Spanish), the "gift- giver," bringing cold, nutrient-rich water that is a boon to marine life, supporting a larger fish population, and increasing the fish catch off the Peruvian coast. Source - https://www.nationalgeographic.com

USA - Massive rodents pose great danger to California's agriculture

Merced County sweet potato farmer Stan Silva hadn’t even heard of “nutria” until a few months ago. He’s still never seen one, but he’s worried about the damage these 20-pound rodents with big orange buck teeth could do in California. “It would be devastating,” Silva said. “They can basically ruin the ag industry here: They get in your fields, burrow into your canal ways and your waterways.” They can also tear up crops and levees, making the state’s water infrastructure more vulnerable. Nutria aren’t native to California, or the US. Fur farmers brought the South American rodent to Southern California in the late 1800s as an attempt to make an affordable mink alternative. Despite multiple attempts, the nutria fur business never took off, but the rodents went feral. California’s Department of Food and Agriculture determined that they were eradicated in the 1970s. But last year, a few were spotted again in Merced County, and they’re multiplying. Nutria can have up to 200 offspring a year. By this April, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife had to create a task force. Now, the rodents are on the move, north toward the San Joaquin Delta, California’s most important water source. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

Romania - Air temperature decrease put winter rape under the risk of frost damage

A cold snap occurred in Romania this past week. Air temperature was 4..2°С below multi-year normal. Its daytime average fell to -7..+5°С. Precipitation in the form of rain and sleet was seen everywhere (10-25 mm), except for the southeast of the country. It gradually eases soil drought. Snow cover developed in spots across the northeast and south of Romania. In the rest of the country, winter crops were exposed to the risk of frost damage after air temperature had dropped below -10°C..-15°C. Crops that entered dormancy in weakened condition are particularly susceptible to this risk. Winter grains are in the tillering stage. Winter rape plants are in the stage of leaf rosette. Source - http://www.blackseagrain.net/

USA - USDA provides options for producers delayed by weather this harvest

It’s been a tough fall for producers this year as rain and snow have hampered the nation’s combines, and the Department of Agriculture wants to make sure producers are in line with crop insurance requirements for a slowed harvest. Next Monday, December 10 is a critical date for producers. By that time, the insurance period for spring-planted crops covered under the Risk Management Agency (RMA) administered crop insurance program ends. “It’s not easy in some cases to understand exactly what each farmer’s situation is, but you can see some of these pockets that maybe neighboring areas got their harvest out but (a different farmer) got an extra rain that shortened up the harvest season,” USDA Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation Bill Northey said in an interview with Agri-Pulse. USDA’s procedures allow crop insurance companies to authorize policyholders, on a case-by-case basis, more time to attempt to harvest so claims can be settled based on harvested production. That in mind, Northey said farmers need to give their insurance agent a call if they think they’ll be late, and farmers have a few options. Primarily, producers are asked to get in touch with their crop insurance agent to document the delay in harvest was not because due to a lack of sufficient equipment or manpower to harvest the crop by the end of the insurance period. If given timely notice, insurance providers can determine and document the delay in harvest was due to an insured cause of loss and a timely harvest was not possible. Northey said he’s been in contact with producers in Tennessee, and “there are some soybeans yet to harvest in that area.” The same could be said, he added, for many upper plains states. “North Dakota has struggled in some of the crops as well,” he said. “Yet in between those pockets some have had just enough window to harvest.” USDA has observed harvest delays in almost every state, and Northey said cotton is “very delayed” in the southern plains. Soybean harvest has also been slowed in certain areas along the East Coast or upper Midwest. "Everthing's been behind. Behind planting, behind spraying, everything's just been behind," Maryland corn and soybean grower Mike Harrison said. "There's water laying on top of the ground and streams going through the field." He's got 100 acres of corn left to harvest and expects to be done in the next week or so. It's the same story in southeast Michigan. Dan Cable, Vice President of the Michigan Corn Growers Association, continues to shell corn near Maybee and said they've had "tremendous rains" the entire fall. "It's hard to be upbeat about something most of us have looked forward to doing our whole life." According to the Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service, farmers have harvested 94 percent of the nation's corn crop and 95 percent of the soybeans. The nation's cotton (98 percent), sorghum (99 percent), peanuts (96 percent), and sunflowers (87 percent) are nearly all out of fields, but almost every state has a few untouched acres. “Sometimes you look out there and say, ‘there’s only five percent left to harvest,” Northey said. “That still could be a lot of dollars and a lot of producers.” Source - https://www.agri-pulse.com

India - Manipur Mysterious killings: 145 livestock killed till date

The investigative report on the mysterious killings of livestock in Manipur, which has rocked the state during the past few weeks, will likely come as a surprise to many even as the details of the report, scheduled to be presented today, is awaited. The assessment of the investigation in connection with the mysterious killings of livestock is being done by experts from Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun from November. Two forensic scientists from Wildlife Institute of India (WII) Dehradun including a wildlife biologist and a camera track expert have arrived in Imphal on Sunday, a day after a woman was allegedly attacked by a mystery creature in Imphal East district. The team has been setting up camera traps and collecting samples from different parts where these killing were reported. Chief conservator of forest (Wildlife), Anurag Bajpai had, on Wednesday, informed that 145 livestock has been reportedly killed till date even as he suspect that the possible predator could be a dog as per evidences that have been collected so far. Substantiating his theory, he said that dogs tend to become aggressive during this season. They also have the behaviour of eating only the intestinal parts of livestock as the particular parts contain high protein and fat. Moreover, reports of missing dogs in the state are very high, he added. Chief conservator of forest (Wildlife) said that amidst forest department is putting all possible effort to control the mysterious killing of livestock, another five more livestock has been reportedly killed in three districts. Besides the mentioned incidents, a sighting of an alleged predator at Langthabal has been reported, he said. From Tuesday evening till Wednesday morning, one chicken has been reportedly killed at Bishnupur Balaram Khul Maning Leikai and one chicken was found injured in Thoubal district while another chicken and one pig was found killed at New Lambulane and Nagapamapal respectively. Though, the incidents took place seven days ago, the reports arrived only on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Th. Mahendrapratap, who is also the chief conservator of forest department, appealed not to kill any kind of wild animal at any cost. He further stated that if the animal killed just on mere suspicion belonged to an endangered species then it will be a great loss for the State. Source - https://thenortheasttoday.com

India - Kashmir's embattled apple growers buried by wild weather

Unusually early and heavy snowfall split the trunks of 60 of Dar’s 100 apple trees in November, leading to huge apple - and financial - losses just before the harvest in Shopian, a region known as Kashmir’s apple bowl. “Even if the climate remains favorable in the years to come, I will get only 40 percent (of the apples) I used to harvest,” lamented the farmer from the village of Hirpora. The snow will cut his income by 60 percent this year, he said - and the bad times will last until he can replant or repair all his damaged trees. Heavy mid-autumn snow in the Kashmir Valley has wreaked havoc on the region’s famed orchards, severely damaging apple, apricot, cherry, walnut and almond trees. Apple growers have been hardest hit, with the snow destroying not just this season’s apple crop but the heavily laden trees themselves. Manzoor Ahmed Qadri, horticulture director for Jammu and Kashmir state, said over 1.5 million apple trees had been damaged - a major economic threat in a region where half a million families depend on fruit for jobs and produce provides 7 percent of the state’s GDP. Officials blame the disaster on increasingly unpredictable weather associated with climate change, which they say is leading to a range of costly problems across the region. The risks are particularly serious, they say, because there is so far little in place, from insurance to substantive compensation, to help farmers deal with the risks. “A tree takes at least a decade to mature, and the snowfall has ruined the hard work of years for farmers,” lamented Ashok Dhawale, president of All India Kisan Sabha, a national farmer welfare organization. As climate change brings wilder weather and more losses in the orchards, “the earnings of farmers, whose livelihood is dependent on (fruit), will come down drastically”, he warned in an interview with the Thomson Reuters Foundation. SNOW IN MAY In Kashmir, the 40 harshest days of winter, called “Chillai Kalan”, usually begin on December 21 and last until the end of January. But last winter the region saw no snow at all until the second week of February. Tourists in high-altitude areas were then delighted to see snow in May. But the unexpected weather brought huge problems for pastoralist families on their annual migration routes. Mohammad Razak, 50, was herding his flock in remote Poonch district when unusual torrential rain and hail killed more than 100 of his goats and sheep. “Before we could understand anything, a thunderstorm and hail followed rains. In the absence of any shelter, goats and sheep rushed towards a gully ... and got washed away,” Razak said in an interview. The herder received about $500 in financial compensation under the State Disaster Respond Fund but said it was not adequate to meet his losses, which were about double what he received. In the same storm, Mohammad Farooq, 45, another pastoralist, lost over 150 cattle in a landslide in Bafliaz, with his family only narrowly escaping. Social media users in Jammu and Kashmir circulated pictures of his dead livestock and published his bank details, asking for financial help for the family. INSURANCE? To help fruit growers hit by unseasonable snow, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology has issued advice on how farmers can protect trees from damage. The state’s horticulture department has uploaded videos on its website showing growers how to drill into broken tree trunks and try to rejoin them with large screws. Dhawale, of the farmer welfare group, said Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana - a crop insurance scheme put in place by India’s prime minister in 2016 - has so far not provided much help with worsening crop losses in Kashmir from wilder weather. Many farmers remain unaware that help is available from the program, according to an August survey by Weather Risk Management Services Pvt Ltd., a global provider of climate risk management services. Dhawale said that “only a holistic approach” that combined compensation, efforts to reduce farmer debt and help putting in place processing facilities to boost incomes would help farmers deal with the growing pressures. The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry, meanwhile, has asked the state government to speed approval of a restructured state insurance program aimed at helping struggling apple and saffron farmers. For now, widespread damage to trees and the apple harvest mean apple prices have jumped over 20 percent across the country since the disaster, as Jammu and Kashmir state produces nearly 80 percent of India’s apples. CHERRIES, RICE AND MAIZE Kashmir’s changing weather patterns mean the region now gets more of its snow at the end of February and in early March, said Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, head of earth sciences at the University of Kashmir. That has been good news for autumn-harvested crops - including rice and maize - which saw a 10 percent larger harvest this year, said Chowdhary Mohammad Iqbal, a director of the state agriculture department. But the late snow is hurting the region’s cherry harvest, Romshoo said, as “the valley receives delayed snowfall when the trees are in full bloom”. Other changes also are underway as Kashmir - like other high-altitude Himalayan regions - records increases in its minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Overall much less snow and more rain is falling, Romshoo said, and “earlier people wouldn’t use fans in the region during summer but now people use air conditioners here”. Forest fires also are becoming a worsening problem, he said. “The incidents of forest fires, which were earlier unimaginable during winters, are now being reported frequently due to delayed snowfall or dry winters,” he said. “Such indicators of the climate change are very disturbing,” he added. Omar Abdullah, the former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, last month shared a viral video clip on Twitter of a heartbroken apple grower frantically trying to save his harvested crop, buried under heavy snow in south Kashmir. Abdullah called the disaster “tragic”. “This man’s spirits are completely crushed. ... It’s no wonder he’s weeping the way he is,” he remarked. Source - https://www.reuters.com

India - Crop insurance scheme: Farmers at helm of benefits

Of the various crop insurance schemes at the national level since 1985, the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) is the most ambitious risk mitigation programme for farmers. The yield-based National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS) was the most widely implemented scheme. The present government held a comprehensive review and extensive consultations to close loopholes before a national level rollout in April 2016. The scheme has been implemented over five seasons now and the scale of finance in each district for each crop forms the basis of calculation of sum insured. This roughly corresponds to cost incurred and gives farmers adequate financial protection without any reduction due to capping in earlier scheme. This sum insured has doubled. The average sum insured, which was Rs 22,000 per hectare, is now Rs 40,000. The earlier NAIS was based on the trust model where government collected a token premium from farmers but bore liability for payment of claims beyond premium collected. PMFBY is an actuarial model based scheme where token premium is charged and government pays the balance premium quoted by insurance companies selected by states through transparent bidding — full liability of payment of claims is with companies. Reports suggesting 350% increase in premiums conveniently suppress that government liability was unlimited in the earlier scheme. The 2015-16 type drought, had it happened in 2016-17 or 2017-18 with nearly double sum insured, would have resulted in a huge payout than premium subsidy in PMFBY. PMFBY has seen a quantum jump in voluntary enrolment of farmers. It has two categories — loanee farmers (those who avail agriculture loan) are compulsorily covered automatically by banks and non-loanee farmers (those who do not take loan) enrol voluntarily. In 2015-16, the year before PMFBY was launched, only 28 lakh farmers opted voluntarily, rising to an additional 1.36 crore farmers in 2016-17. This number stayed constant in 2017-18. Increase in voluntary enrolment, particularly in rain-fed areas, implies its utility as a safety net. Since launch of PMFBY, India has had two consecutive bumper crop years. Yet, during 2016-17, more than 5.72 crore farmers were insured, with a claim ratio of 75%. And 4.99 crore farmers were insured in 2017-18, with claim ratio of 87% for Kharif 2017. More than Rs 33,000 crore was paid in the first three seasons against farmer premium share of Rs 7,272 crore. In context of criticism that insurance firms made windfall gains, calamity-hit areas saw high settlements. More than 100% of premium collected in Kerala (210%) and Karnataka (132%) during Kharif 2016, in Tamil Nadu (287%) and Andhra Pradesh (159%) during Rabi 2016-17, and in Chhattisgarh (425%), Odisha (204%), Haryana (201%), and Madhya Pradesh (135%) during Kharif 2017. During 2017-18, there was a drop in total farmers insured to 4.99 crore from 5.72 crore in 2016-17. This drop is in the compulsory loanee category. Two largest states, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, announced loan waivers, making more than 69 lakh farmers ineligible. Direct benefit transfer with Aadhaar introduced in April 2017 to deliver claims directly in bank accounts erased ghost beneficiaries. This also decreased loanee farmers though voluntary coverage was unaffected. Technology has speeded up claim settlement. The National Crop Insurance Portal seamlessly links more than 5.5 crore farmers and data entry from more than 1.5 lakh banks and financial institutions is done every season. Government is keen to improve the scheme. Timely claim settlement is the key focus. There are penal provisions on agencies which cause delays — 12% penal interest by insurance companies to farmers for delays beyond 10 days. And 12% penal interest by states to insurance companies if more than three months delay in releasing share of subsidy. PMFBY has a higher basket of risk coverage — from pre-sowing calamities to post harvest losses — and provides uniform benefits to farmers across India. Insurance is all about spreading the risk. It is unfair to compare claims in relatively good years of 2016-17 and 2017-18 with premium collected, even though this is as high as 80%. Source - https://epaper.timesgroup.com

USA - Crop insurance reporting goes digital

While a crop insurance claim is something most farmers don’t wish to make, sometimes they’re inevitable and data technology could make the process easier. Several data technology companies are partnering with crop insurance providers to provide streamlined reporting and better risk management modeling. Recently Climate Corporation partnered with Farmer’s Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa, Farmers Edge made a deal with PartnerRe, Rain and Hail signed an agreement with Bushel and Farmer’s Business Network announced it would offer crop insurance through FBN Insurance, LLC. Each offer varying services related to crop insurance and risk management. Climate Corporation and Farmer’s Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa connect field-level data to simplify crop insurance reporting. Bayer’s Climate Corporation enables the insurance company to access the Climate FieldView platform. Once a farmer allows access to FieldView, he or she can request data transfer to Farmer’s Mutual Hail Insurance. It can provide planting and production reports, eliminating manual entry. The companies say they will work together to identify future collaboration opportunities to partner in digital risk management for farmers. “Not only will connecting our two systems enhance reporting processes, the data collected through FieldView can be used for adjusting crop losses, resulting in an enhanced claim experience for our policyholders,” says Ron Rutledge, Farmer’s Mutual Hail president and CEO. Farmers Edge teams up with PartnerRe to offer real-time field data with customized crop insurance products. The four-year agreement combine’s Farmers Edge precision farming capabilities with PartnerRe’s agriculture insurance provisions. The companies will jointly develop new ag insurance production worldwide to address farmer needs. Insurance products will integrate with prevision farming capabilities to improve sustainability and efficiency, enabling them to obtain insurance specialized to individual needs. In addition, insurance providers will benefit from loss adjustment process efficiency. “Through this partnership, Farmers Edge is making digital agronomy a reality and empowering farmers all over the globe with data-driven insights so they can maximize crop yields, make better decisions and secure tailor-made insurance solutions that make sense for their market,” says Wade Barnes, Farmers Edge president and CEO. Chubb’s agricultural business Rain and Hail signed a multi-year agreement with Bushel to connect customers with farmers digitally. Bushel’s software program allows grain elevators, co-ops and ethanol plants automate sharing scale tickets from participating partners with their crop insurance agent. The Multiple Peril Crop Insurance program requires farmers to report harvest quantities and the companies say this new partnership will reduce the time it takes to report. Automated sharing services will be available nationwide in 2019. “The addition of Bushel to our platform provides growers and agents a quick and efficient way to report critical production information that can help save them time during their busy harvest system,” says Scott Arnold, president of Rain and Hail. Farmer’s Business Network will offer a full range of crop insurance products and services for select states in 2019. FBN Insurance is offered in Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas. FBN’s offering will provide users with access to insurance products from both federal programs and private offerings such as hail and wind-type supplemental products. The company says it will provide personalized, smarter risk management programs to secure farmers in down years without dragging profit in good years. “Farmers take on an enormous amount of risk to feed and power our nation, and yet no two farms are identical in their risk profiles,” says Lucas Strom, head of insurance at FBN. “Why should they have a one-size-fits-all model when it comes to managing their risk? FBN Insurance gives farmers the security they need to farm productively with an insurance plan that’s personalized to their risk appetite.” Source - https://www.agprofessional.com/

UK supercomputer gives African farmers early warning of pests and blights

While millions of people go hungry around the world, 40 per cent of crops are decimated by pests and diseases. But British scientists believe they have found a solution and it comes, in part, from space. The Pest Risk Information Service (Prise) uses data from satellites and weather stations to predict when disease or pest infestations will hit crops, giving farmers much needed time to prepare. The project, part funded by the UK Space Agency and UKAid, uses a supercomputer in Oxfordshire called Jasmin to analyse the various data streams and provide weekly pest forecasts. Already in use in Ghana, Kenya and Zambia, Prise is due to be rolled out in Malawi and Rwanda in early 2019. Scientists hope that the early warning system can increase both yields and incomes for farmers by at least 10 per cent. “This is cutting edge technology,” Marin Hirschfeld, from the Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International (CABI), the research not-for-profit which coordinates the programme. “It builds on previous projects that reacted to pests and disease outbreaks, and turns it on it’s head to become predictive, so farmers can take preventative action to reduce crop losses," he added. Farmers are currently notified of pest forecasts through an existing network of so-called ‘Plant Doctors’, who receive WhatsApp messages with weekly warnings at a county level during the growing season. Satellites scanning the Earth provide data on land use and surface temperatures. These data are combined with information from weather stations and then used to predict when the optimum conditions for six pests to thrive are met. The 9,200-strong plant doctor network was developed through CABI’s Plantwise scheme, which was largely funded by the Department for International Development (DfID). Since 2011, the scheme has helped over 18 million farmers in 34 countries, by training the plant doctors and providing resources, including an app which they can use to help diagnose the issue and prescribe a solution. Farmers access the doctors at plant clinics, where they can ask for advice about crop management, or techniques to to tackle diseases and pests. Those who used the service saw yields and incomes that were 13 per cent higher than their counterparts who did not. Plant doctors use an knowledge bank app developed by CABI to help farmers identify crop disease CREDIT: CABI But while plant doctors will continue their work, Prise aims to eventually reduce the need for a middle man by creating an app that farmers can download directly to their phones. “Agriculture is foundational, and not only by providing food” said Mr Hirschfeld. “When people get more money from their primary source of income, they can send their kids to better schools, or buy better food, or afford better healthcare, and so on.” Prise is still in it's infancy, with 520 plant doctors receiving alerts and around 2,000 farmers reached so far. But the early signs suggest that it is working, with plant doctors reporting that forecasts were correct in the vast majority of cases. CABI say that if success continues, the service could one day be available for UK farmers to buy. "It really is an amazing product, and is a great example of a reverse innovation," said Mr Hirschfeld. "When the Prise product reaches maturity, we will explore how to bring it to UK farmers." Source - https://www.telegraph.co.uk

Colombia - El Niño may cut rainfall by 80 percent in early 2019

In the first quarter of 2019, the El Niño weather phenomenon could reduce rainfall in Colombia by 80 percent, according to the country’s environment minister. This would cause major water shortages and help spread forest fires. El Niño is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific. In Colombia it is associated with crop damage and flash floods, while in other countries it can cause intense rain. The South American country, where the majority of electricity is generated with hydropower, suffered nearly a year of drought conditions between 2015 and 2016 which almost led to energy rationing. “El Niño is maturing and in its maturity is impacting 90 percent of the country,” Environment Minister Ricardo Lozano told journalists. The government is working to prevent forest fires and avoid further deforestation in Colombia’s Amazon region, he said, adding that low rainfall may extend beyond the first quarter. He called on residents to save water to avoid potential rationing. El Niño can also negatively affect coffee and banana crops, which would be particularly poignant, as Colombia is the world’s top grower of washed arabica coffee. Drought also generally causes an increase in food prices, with the potential to stoke short-term inflation. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

Australia - ABARES downgrades predicted winter crop after damaging frosts, driest September on record

Australia's winter crop looks worse than initially predicted after the driest September on record and significant frost damage. With harvests underway across most of the country, the latest forecast by the Australian government commodity forecaster ABARES puts crop production 20 per cent below the 20-year-average and the lowest since Australia's last drought in 2008-09. The report, released this morning, has predicted a crop of 29.3 million tonnes, nearly 4 million tonnes less than the September forecast. Just two seasons ago, farmers across Australia's grain growing regions were preparing to reap a record-breaking 59 million tonne harvest. ABARES senior economist Peter Collins said crops deteriorated after Australia recorded its driest September on record, a critical month for crops because spring rains could provide major boosts to yields. "Since September we've downgraded the forecast in just about every state except WA — in NSW there's been a downgrade of 19 per cent, Victoria 31 per cent and Queensland 12 per cent and South Australia 21 per cent," Mr Collins said. "That's been because early in spring a lot of crops needed rain, that rain didn't come and it remained dry in some areas in October or it came too late." Frost damage hurts farmers The danger of frosts is also at its highest in September and significant frost events damaged crops in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. High fodder prices and reduced crop prospects resulted in many farmers, who planted crops for grain production, opting to cut them early for hay. Harvesting of winter crops like wheat, barley and canola is nearly finished in Queensland and underway in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. The lowest crop Australia has recorded in the last 20 years was about 17 million tonnes in 2002-03 and 2006-07 seasons. But despite this year's drought, Mr Collins said crop production across Australia would be 69 per cent higher than that. "By historical standards there have been others that have been even lower, there have been other years when there's been drought right across the country," he said. "This year the worst of the drought has been in the eastern states and Western Australia is still having a reasonable year." WA is expected to account for more than 50 per cent of the national crop with an increase in its production of 11 per cent on last year. The report said the quality of crops harvested so far had varied widely among different crops and different regions, but the overall quality won't be known until more was harvested. Overall, ABARES has forecasted some significant drops in nationwide grain production this harvest: Wheat production by 20 per cent to 17 million tonnes Barley production by 18 per cent to 7.3 million tonnes Canola production by 39 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes Chickpea production by 39 per cent to 330,000 tonnes Oat production by 21 per cent to 888,000 tonnes Source - https://www.abc.net.au

China - Crop drop: swine fever outbreak to curb its soybean imports

China’s imports of soybeans are set to drop as an outbreak of African swine fever hits its huge pig herd and saps demand for the animal feed ingredient, making it easier for buyers to keep shunning U.S. cargoes amid the Sino-U.S. trade war. African swine fever, deadly to pigs but not harmful to people, has spread rapidly through China, with more than 70 cases reported across farms since early August. That and already large soy inventories are curbing appetite for beans in what is by far the world’s biggest importer of the commodity, traders and analysts said, meaning buyers are unlikely to need to return to importing U.S. crops anytime soon. “Had it not been for the swine fever, China would have faced a shortage of beans early next year,” said a Beijing-based executive at an international trading company. “Now it seems that soybean processors will be able to do without U.S. beans,” he added, declining to be identified as he was not authorized to speak with media. Washington and Beijing have been locked in a trade war, with soybeans one of the commodities at the heart of the conflict. After imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybean imports, China has been taking mainly Brazilian beans, threatening to leave a bumper U.S. harvest piled up in storage or rotting in fields. But as overall Chinese demand for soybeans slows, Brazilian price premiums are also suffering, plunging to 85¢ a bushel <S-BRZPAR-B2> over the January Chicago contract from an October peak of $2.75. “China has not been taking U.S. beans for months and now demand for Brazilian soybeans has also dropped significantly,” said a Singapore-based trader at an international company which owns oilseed processing facilities in China. Large domestic inventories are also playing a big part in the faltering appetite for soy. China’s soybean stocks <CFD-SBSTK-NATN> are at 7.45 million tonnes, the highest for this time of the year in a decade. “The whole northeastern region has enough soybeans as there are lots of domestic supplies and crushers here have stored Brazilian soybeans,” said a manager at a crushing plant in Liaoning province in the northeast, one of China’s key areas for feed and pig production. DECEMBER DROP China’s December soybean imports are expected to drop 37% to 6 million tonnes from 9.574 million tonnes a year ago, two of the trade sources estimated. China brought in 6.92 million tonnes of soybeans in October, with 94% of that volume coming from Brazil. Another trader, based in Beijing and who declined to be identified, estimated Chinese soybean arrivals in the first quarter of 2019 at 11 to 12 million tonnes, which would be down from 19.6 million tonnes at the same time this year. “Farmers will be less willing to replenish their herds, with the African swine fever outbreaks spreading in China. Soymeal consumption next year will be affected as a result,” said Yao Guiling, an analyst with consultancy China-America Commodity Data Analytics. Not all industry sources said the disease would have an immediate impact on demand for soy since restrictions on transporting livestock are making it more difficult for farmers in some areas to truck pigs to slaughterhouses. Meanwhile, focus in global soybean markets is turning to this week’s G20 summit in Argentina, with people looking for any signs the trade war could end or even escalate. “It is a fact that demand for Brazilian beans has slowed down in the last 30 days, but I would say this is much more due to expectations regarding the G20 meeting,” said Frederico Humberg, chief executive officer of Sao Paulo-based grain sourcing company AgriBrasil. Farmers in the South American agricultural powerhouse have boosted planting this year, eyeing Chinese demand. Brazilian soybean farmers in the key state of Mato Grosso may start harvesting the crop before the end of December, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said, as the pace of sowing has been the fastest in history. Source - https://www.agriculture.com

‘Smart’ insurance helps poor farmers to cut risk

Drought spells disaster for many farmers in the developing world as most lack crop insurance. No rain means no income, no food and not enough resources to replant the next year. Now, however, more than 20,000 farms in Ghana, Kenya and Uganda have access to simple and affordable crop insurance via their smartphones. The policies or “smart contracts” currently under development are based on blockchain, the distributed ledger technology that underpins cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. This avoids the need for paperwork and means payouts can be triggered automatically when certain conditions are met, such as a specific number of days of drought. The system uses high-resolution satellite images to detect rainfall and plant growth data. Conventional crop insurance is too expensive for more than 500m small farmers worldwide, says Christopher Sheehan, founder and chief executive of US-based WorldCover, which developed the system. “But with machine learning and blockchain technology, we can process these data very cheaply to produce a really simple crop insurance product with premiums of $20 to $50 for a farmer who might only be earning $3,000 a year.” Payments can be made using mobile money transfer services such as M-Pesa. “They might receive a payment after seven days without rain,” Mr Sheehan says. WorldCover has been working with Lloyd’s of London insurance market and Nephila Capital, an investment management company specialising in weather reinsurance, to create a viable product. Crucially, it is simple to use and at this stage focuses exclusively on rainfall — a form of “parametric” or “index-based” insurance that does not require manual assessments or decision- making. “Even a farmer with limited literacy can understand an agreement where I say I’ll pay you if it doesn’t rain for a week,” says Mr Sheehan. Ease of use is crucial, agrees Michiel Berende, head of inclusive insurance at Etherisc, which has formed a joint venture with Aon and Oxfam to develop a blockchain crop insurance system in Sri Lanka. The initial goal is to automate policies already in place and reduce operating costs, says Mr Berende. The group also wants to explore how blockchain could be used to distribute the risk of crop insurance more fairly by sharing the cost of premiums among others in the value chain. “The farmer will still have to pay, but so could the other parties involved, starting with the large producers and multinationals,” says Mr Berende. Ultimately, even the customer could make a contribution, through the retail price. “The long-term vision is that when you buy a product you will be able to scan the barcode to see not just where it was produced and by which farmer, but what part of the price is the insurance,” says Mr Berende. The fact that the policies are based on third-party data, such as rainfall measured by satellite and ground sensors, means they are objective, thereby avoiding disputes and fraudulent claims. Eventually, the Etherisc group plans to extend the system to include crop disease affected by the weather, such as brown plant hopper, which is linked to dry conditions. Insurers are keen to add crop risk to their portfolios, says Mr Sheehan, who has attracted interest from Swiss Re and Lloyd’s. “At the moment, it is under-represented because it has not been economically viable to serve so many low-budget clients.” India has an extensive government-backed crop insurance programme, but this can be slow to pay out, and the government is examining how blockchain might improve it. Aditya Das, an insurance specialist based in Bangalore, says: “If the current momentum is sustained, we should see pilots in the next 12 to 18 months and a rollout within two years.” Faster and more accurate information combined with trigger-based decisions will reduce enrolment errors and speed the process, says Mr Das, especially payment of claims. “Both of these will significantly boost farmer confidence and increase enrolment, which in turn should kick off a virtuous cycle.” Moreover, research by the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Assets and Market Access at the University of California, Davis, shows that farmers who are insured tend to invest more in the hope of higher income in good years. Removal of risk through insurance can increase smallholder investment and income by 20 to 30 per cent. This indirectly identifies the huge year-on-year cost that farmers pay when they manage the risks they face on their own. Blockchain is still in its infancy and smart contracts need to be very simple. Hence at the moment they are only being considered for conditions that can be measured easily, such as rainfall. Chris Udry, King professor of economics at Northwestern University, Illinois, says blockchain will play a supporting, rather than a lead, role in crop insurance. Being able to make mobile payouts immediately when an index insurance trigger is reached will be good, he says. “But its importance pales in comparison to designing an index that is strongly correlated with farmer profits — a goal that is still far from being achieved,” he says. Smart contracts could be used to decentralise the insurance and reinsurance contracting process, perhaps permitting more efficient diversification, he says. “But again, this is less important than the reduction in transaction costs via mobile money, the establishment of trust that payouts will be made, or the design of contracts that reduce risk.” Source - https://www.ft.com

Spain - Potato campaign with 15-20% lower production

This year's Spanish potato season is almost finished and will come to an end with a 15 to 20% lower yield than in 2017, reports the head of the FEPEX potato committee, Jose Ramón Aguado. In France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands there will also be 20% declines in the harvest and the total volume won't reach 20 million tons, according to an estimate of the NEPG (North Western European Potato Growers). According to Aguado, the decline in the Spanish production is mainly due to the weather conditions. The spring was too wet, which took a negative toll during the planting. Moreover, the summer was marked by a lot of temperature fluctuations, so the potato plants did not develop well. According to the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, 67,810 hectares of potatoes were planted this year; 4.3% less than in 2017. When it comes to potato production, the most important regions are Castile-Leon, with about 19,351 hectares; Galicia, with 17,221 hectares, and Andalusia, with 10,542 hectares. According to the same source, the harvest volume stands at 1,978,000 tons, divided into 92,000 tons of extra early potatoes, 372,000 tons of early potatoes, 832,000 tons of mid-season potatoes and 691,000 tons of late potatoes. The NEPG states that the average yield of potato producers in France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands is the lowest in years and stands 13.1% below the average of the past five years. According to the organization, there are also huge differences between irrigated and non-irrigated cultivation and also between the different varieties and crop regions. The yields in Europe are therefore very diverse and fluctuate between 18 and 80 tonnes per hectare. In the NEPG mid-season harvest estimates, a 4.4% drop in the average yield was already expected; a decrease that eventually turned out to be even greater. The total planted area of the five NEPG countries has grown by 1% and amounts to 595,587 hectares. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com

Australia - Hailstorms cut swath across Wheatbelt crops

Farmers are counting the cost of hail storms, heavy rain and strong winds that tore through the central Wheatbelt on Monday afternoon. The wild weather event, which stretched across areas including Bolgart and North Tammin to Southern Cross, in places dumped more than 40mm of rain, while crops were pelted with 3cm hailstones and lightning strikes caused spot fires. At Tammin, WAFarmers president Tony York said his family’s 1300ha wheat crop, yet to be harvested, had varying levels of hail damage. About 300ha of that was destroyed. He said neighbours had reported similar destruction. “It’s very disappointing, although we are protected financially through insurance, we are not getting the reward of delivering what could have been a very promising crop after watching it grow all year,” Mr York said. At Bolgart, Trevor Syme returned from fighting fires caused by lightning on a neighbouring property to find more 1000ha of his crop had been hit by hail. He said 500ha of canola and lupins was wiped out. A further 600ha of Mr Syme’s wheat is expected to have about 60 per cent damage. “We need to wait for the crop to dry out and the insurance assessor to come to determine whether we’ll put the header through the wheat,” he said. Mr Syme said he had hail damage in the past but nowhere near this extensive. “It’s difficult to spend all year growing these crops and then have them flattened at the final hurdle,” he said. At Southern Cross, farmer Gary Guerini said hailstones pelted a strip 5km to 10km long and 3km wide. Mr Guerini said his farm escaped the brunt of the storms, but about 200ha of his crop had light hail damage. He said others in the district had far more severe damage. “At this stage everyone is still driving around trying to work out just how bad the damage has been,” he said. Hail stones at Tony York’s property at Tammin.Picture: Supplied CBH Group Kwinana zone manager Andrew Mencshelyi said several areas had heavy rain and thunderstorms, including Goomalling, Dowerin, Tammin, Trayning, Warralakin and Bencubbin, and other isolated areas. “It appears damage is not widespread, and most growers will be back on track for harvesting with clear weather forecast for the rest of the week,” he said. “For those who have experienced a few heavy rain events recently there may be some impact on grain quality, but it’s too early to tell at this stage.” Grain Industry Association of WA spokesman Michael Lamond said the wild weather was hit and miss across affected areas. “The rain and hail was quite intense in some areas, but just down the road there may be no damage,” he said. Source - https://thewest.com.au