Australia's winter crop looks worse than initially predicted after the driest September on record and significant frost damage. With harvests underway across most of the country, the latest forecast by the Australian government commodity forecaster ABARES puts crop production 20 per cent below the 20-year-average and the lowest since Australia's last drought in 2008-09. The report, released this morning, has predicted a crop of 29.3 million tonnes, nearly 4 million tonnes less than the September forecast. Just two seasons ago, farmers across Australia's grain growing regions were preparing to reap a record-breaking 59 million tonne harvest. ABARES senior economist Peter Collins said crops deteriorated after Australia recorded its driest September on record, a critical month for crops because spring rains could provide major boosts to yields. "Since September we've downgraded the forecast in just about every state except WA — in NSW there's been a downgrade of 19 per cent, Victoria 31 per cent and Queensland 12 per cent and South Australia 21 per cent," Mr Collins said.

Frost damage hurts farmers

The danger of frosts is also at its highest in September and significant frost events damaged crops in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. High fodder prices and reduced crop prospects resulted in many farmers, who planted crops for grain production, opting to cut them early for hay. Harvesting of winter crops like wheat, barley and canola is nearly finished in Queensland and underway in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. The lowest crop Australia has recorded in the last 20 years was about 17 million tonnes in 2002-03 and 2006-07 seasons. But despite this year's drought, Mr Collins said crop production across Australia would be 69 per cent higher than that. "This year the worst of the drought has been in the eastern states and Western Australia is still having a reasonable year." WA is expected to account for more than 50 per cent of the national crop with an increase in its production of 11 per cent on last year. The report said the quality of crops harvested so far had varied widely among different crops and different regions, but the overall quality won't be known until more was harvested. Overall, ABARES has forecasted some significant drops in nationwide grain production this harvest:

• Wheat production by 20 per cent to 17 million tonnes
• Barley production by 18 per cent to 7.3 million tonnes
• Canola production by 39 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes
• Chickpea production by 39 per cent to 330,000 tonnes
• Oat production by 21 per cent to 888,000 tonnes

Source - https://www.abc.net.au