The serious threat of drought that Turkey faces due to a lack of precipitation this year is already affecting Turkey's agriculture sector, with the 2014 wheat harvest at particular risk of underperforming and possible crop failures in a number of grain-growing regions, according to a recent report published by the Oxford Business Group (OBG), a global publishing, research and consultancy firm.
The OBG show that poor rainfall this year may see Turkey's agricultural exports down and imports up. Drought may also put employment levels in the agricultural sector, the second largest source of employment in the Turkish economy, under pressure.
One of Europe's largest wheat producers, Turkey harvested a record 22.1 metric tons in 2013, according to the Turkish Statistics Institution (TurkStat). While much of this is for domestic consumption, Turkey exports to a number of countries both in the region and further afield, including to markets in Asia, with the Philippines and Indonesia among its major buyers, the report stated, adding that Turkey is an importer of some varieties of wheat, in particular durum wheat, used for producing pasta.
Turkish Union of Agricultural Chambers (TZOB) President Şemsi Bayraktar recently told that the lack of rain and snow has already affected grain yields, adding that farmers are looking forward to rain coming as soon as possible. “The growers are very concerned because their grain crops did not get enough rainfall in November and December,” Bayraktar said, adding that according to the information they received from TZOB branches across the country, some planted seeds failed to grow due to the lack of water.
The majority of Turkey's wheat crop is planted in early to mid-winter, germinating before the coldest part of the season, then lying dormant until early spring before resuming its growth cycle, with harvests in June or early July. Given the timing of the planting, it is more dependent than most other crops on winter rains and snowfall to provide water for initial growth and then on further rains in spring to sustain growth.
According to data released by the State Waterworks Authority (DSİ), the average cumulative precipitation between Oct. 1, 2013, and Jan. 2, 2014, across Turkey decreased drastically in comparison to previous years and experts are concerned because Turkey faces a serious threat of drought this year due to the lack of rain and snow. In the last three months of 2013, rainfall across the country was down 31.4 percent on average, and almost 42 percent below the figure for the preceding year.
The OBG data indicate that if the spring rains follow a similar pattern to that of winter, Turkey will face problems of water shortages both in its cities and in the agricultural sector. As of mid-January, the average water storage volume in the country's dams was just over 35 percent, well below the 64 percent in the same month of 2013.
The shortage of water in some parts of the country is becoming acute. Yavuz Tezcan, the head of the Ceyhan Chamber of Agriculture in the southern province of Adana, recently warned that up to half the expected harvest of 2 million tons of wheat in the Çukurova region, which accounts for some 10 percent of Turkey's wheat production, could be lost if there are no significant rainfalls in February. Tezcan added that the province of Konya, traditionally the center of the country's wheat belt, has also been affected by drought.
The report also reveals that even if spring does bring significant rainfall, it may be too late for some drought-affected regions where the seed grain has failed to sprout due to dry conditions in early winter. “Turkey can increase its grain imports to cover any shortfall, but putting bread on the table will come at a price,” the report stated.
Over the past year the value of the lira has dropped by around 25 percent against the dollar, the main currency for international grain sales, while the expected poor harvest will mean Turkey will not be able to rely on exports to offset these costs.
Drought may also have a negative impact on inflation. A recent TurkStat figure stated that the consumer price index (CPI) registered its highest increase in 26 months in January by rising 1.72 percent over the previous month due to rising food prices amid tough weather conditions, the depreciating lira and tax hikes.
Analysts expect the upward pressure on inflation to continue in upcoming months due to the continuing drought and exchange rate transitivity. The CPI outstripped previous expectations; a Reuters poll had suggested the increase would be 1.6 percent. Food prices, which have the biggest bearing on headline inflation, saw the largest monthly rise of all categories since 2003.
Source - http://en.cihan.com.tr/
