The chances of a big dry are increasing.

Researchers believe there is now a possibility of a super El Niño developing, which will impact Australian farmers this summer.

It is a phenomenon that is not well known, with only two having occurred in Australia, the first in 1982/83 and the second in 1997/98.

Already the signs are there according Shayne McGregor, a Research Fellow at the University of NSW who says big increases in ocean warming and strong wind blasts from west to east off the coast of Papua New Guinea are needed to trigger an El Niño. There have been three such blasts so far this year.

In countries to Australia's north, like Cambodia, farmers are improving crop varieties and moving to more off-farm income to help support rural livelihoods as tough climate conditions threaten.

But for countries like Fiji, Tonga and Samoa the real threat will be the destruction wrought by increased cyclone activity, one of the expected results of a super El Nino.

Source - http://www.abc.net.au/