Cotton planting estimates are down. Not coincidentally, so are cotton prices.

The National Cotton Council’s planting-intentions survey — the results of which were released Saturday — indicate U.S. producers intend to plant nearly 15 percent less upland cotton acreage this spring than last year. The estimate of 9.4 million cotton acres set to be planted this spring is about 1.6 million lower than the number planted last year.

Planting estimates for extra-long staple cotton are actually up 22.8 percent, but the variety’s 236,000 projected acres represent a fairly small share of the country’s cotton crop. In Texas, projected planted upland cotton acreage is 13.8 percent lower than last year, down from 6.2 million to 5.34 million.

With prices still hovering around a barely break-even mark of 60 cents, considering an acreage switch is understandable, said Mary Jane Buerkle of Plains Cotton Growers. “We’re not surprised,” she said. “We know our producers are making some tough decisions and we certainly support them in determining what crop mix will help them through these times of low cotton prices.”

It’s worth repeating that 15 percent acreage drop is a nationwide average — by state, results vary significantly. In Arizona, for instance, upland-cotton planting acreage estimates shrank more than 60 percent. Meanwhile, in Oklahoma, the drop is estimated only at 6.2 percent.

The choice to plant less cotton often depends on what the alternatives are. That means while a Georgia farmer might be able to grow more peanuts or peaches, those in the South Plains are more limited. “Here, cotton’s just the best thing to grow,” said Brad Heffington. “I’m personally still gonna plant it and just cut our expenses and hope for rain, but it is concerning.”

The Lamb County farmer is considering planting peanuts on some of his sandier soil, but wants to wait a few weeks before he decides. Price changes and insurance options will likely influence that determination.

In Terry County, Dan Jackson predicts dryland cotton acreage staying that way, and more irrigated fields receiving peanut seeds. Jackson, who manages Meadow Co-op Gin, believes crop insurance programs will play a large role. “I think everybody’s kinda trying to find their way right now,” he said. “I don’t think everybody’s gonna have their mind made up until they get to sit down with their insurance people and talk.”

Dawson County farmer Blaine Middleton is even more limited. He can’t grow peanuts or grapes like his neighboring Terry Countians, or corn like producers to the north. “I’m just gonna go ahead and grow cotton everywhere,” he said. “... If I can cut back on expenses and get some good rains, I think I can make it work.”

The National Cotton Council estimated planting acreage by mailing surveys in December to producers in the 17-state Cotton Belt. Staff collected and analyzed their responses. Planting acreage estimates are generally larger than actual harvested acreage; a portion of the crop tends to be abandoned due to factors such as weather. Last year, the nationwide average abandonment rate was 12.8 percent, leaving 8.2 million acres to be harvested, according to the cotton council. With planting deadlines at least a couple months away, Heffington advises against giving up. “Out here in the middle of cotton country, cotton is what built this country and cotton will sustain it,” he said.

Source - http://lubbockonline.com/