The Florida citrus industry was already looking at a historic low for fruit production in the 2022-23 growing season. Then came Hurricane Ian.

In its December citrus forecast on Friday, the first to calculate the losses from Hurricane Ian, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted a Florida harvest of 20 million boxes of oranges for the season, a 28.5% decline from the initial forecast in October, which was 28 million boxes.

That analysis had not yet calculated the damage to citrus groves from Hurricane Ian. Nor did the November forecast, which remained at 28 million boxes.

Friday's forecast included 13 million boxes of Valencias and 7 million for the early to midseason non-Valencia varieties.

The non-Valencias took the biggest hit from the hurricane, compared with the last growing season, as their anticipated numbers are down 62%. The latest Valencia forecast is 43% below last year's harvest.

For other citrus fruits this year, the grapefruit forecast was 1.8 million boxes, which is down 10% since October, and tangerines and tangelos are predicted to be at 600,000 boxes, down 14%, the USDA said.

Some growers, particularly in South Florida, had predicted between 80% to 100% losses from Hurricane Ian, as wind blew fruit from trees and rain flooded groves and suffocated tree roots.

The forecast Friday is just the latest in a multi-decade spiral of bad news for the citrus industry, starting in the 1980s with canker and accelerating with the emergence of citrus greening in 2005.

The Florida citrus industry saw its peak of production in the 1997-98 season, with 244 million boxes. But greening has steadily taken its toll, and last year's harvest was 40.95 million boxes. If the latest forecast for this season holds, it'll mark a one-year drop of more than 50% and would be the lowest orange harvest since 1937-38, which had 19.1 million boxes, according to Mark Hudson, the Florida state statistician for USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service Florida Field Office in Maitland. At that time, groves were not irrigated, he said.

During Florida’s booming years of citrus production, there were about 900,000 acres of groves producing citrus. But that's dropped to 370,000 today, according to Dean Saunders, executive director and senior adviser at SVN Saunders, Ralston, Dantzler in Lakeland.

Florida’s current citrus growing region is mostly south of Interstate 4, a swath of agricultural land considered the largest such district east of the Mississippi River.

Efforts to reverse long-term and hurricane related losses are ongoing. New citrus greening tolerant trees have been growing in plots throughout the state for several years and showing promise toward producing better fruit. New grove management practices also appear promising.

"The December crop forecast reflects the very real challenges that Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Nicole, and the ongoing impacts of Citrus greening have created for growers across the state, but we remain hopeful and motivated to secure the future of our industry,” said Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus. 

Source - https://eu.theledger.com