As the U.S. Department of Agriculture prepares to give $11 billion to farmers across the U.S., row crop producers are continuing to see a yet another year of financial strain.

Last spring, Michelle Soll, the farm and ranch project director for the Rural Response Hotline, told Nebraska Public Media the hotline had seen a sharp increase in calls about financial distress. Nearly nine months later, it still remains a prominent hotline subject.

“The most prominent calls.... Or the most calls that we have right now are the financial distress. It’s farmers and ranchers kind of wanting to get a second opinion, wanting their cash flow reviewed, or might have a demand letter,” Soll said. “Anything along those lines. But it’s pretty much financial distress.”

Soll said the hotline has continued to see an increase in calls from farmers seeking financial consultation. She said continuously decreasing commodity prices, the loss of foreign markets, and rising input costs are driving much of the stress, especially for row crop producers.

“It’s basically the low commodity prices and the 12% or so increase in input.” Soll said. “And you take it $3 to $4 off of a bushel of beans, that really affects the farm economy.”

Earlier this month, the director described the federal funding as “just a Band-Aid” for the statewide agricultural struggle. Now, Soll says the assistance has become even less effective with a recent drop in commodity prices.

“There is no income. They released a report like last Monday and the USDA released a report, after that, the commodity prices went down substantially enough that it offsets about the same amount of money that they are going to be paid in the buyout,” said Soll.

In a November webinar, University of Nebraska-Lincoln agricultural economics professor Brad Lubben said that although Nebraska’s net farm income was hitting near record highs, there was a major caveat within the data.

“When you try and disaggregate net farm income from the market, plus government payments, the government payments are a huge part of the move up in farm income this year,” Lubben said.

He said the agricultural sector has been a “tale of two farms” over the last four years, with ranchers showing growth and row crop farmers losing out on billions of dollars.

“The crop receipts in Nebraska are about 90% corn and soybeans, according to some recent averages. Those numbers are down from $16 billion-plus to around $12 billion. That's a substantial drop, about a 30% drop in corn receipts and about a similar 30% drop in soybean receipts, so crop prospects are down sharply in Nebraska.”

The ag economist said that livestock receipts have increased by around $7 billion since 2022 and will be more than double crop receipts in the state, according to estimates. As receipts for row farmers are decreasing, farming expenses have continued to increase, according to Lubben.

“So, you calculate total receipts, and as soon as you subtract expenses, you get, a pretty quick realization that the tight margins are the rule of the day,” said Lubben.

Lubben said that even with record high receipts for ranchers, it still is a “margin business.”

“They sort of pale in comparison to where we are with farm origin inputs, but manufactured inputs, other inputs, and other overhead, are also up sharply from where they were roughly 15 years ago,” he said. “They're relatively stable in the last year or two, but they're up sharply from where we've been in recent history.”

Lubben told Nebraska Public Media that he in partnership with Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF), would publish updates for the 2026 season later this spring, but on the Nebraska Farmcast podcast earlier this month, Lubben said producers are facing difficult decisions as they plan for the 2026 crop year.

“If you said what's the biggest issue of the day? It's figuring out the economics of production prospects for 2026 marketing prospects for the ‘25 crop. It's the economics right now of the crop sector,” he said, “Were it not for a strong livestock sector and a big government paycheck, the Nebraska ag economy and the U.S. economy, too, would be really struggling.”

He emphasized the challenges in managing risk and costs amid current market conditions.

“The aggregate numbers look okay, but the challenge is real for certain sectors, particularly the crop sector. So, it’s key issues of how you manage risk. Well, that's farm program decisions to come, that's crop insurance decisions to come, it's also how you manage costs... and those are the production costs and enterprise choice and other input decisions that producers have before them,” said Lubben.

Lubben also pointed to federal support as a bridge, though he cautioned that payments may not fully cover losses.

“OB three [Big Beautiful Bill] that increased both commodity program support and crop insurance support does theoretically provide better support in the future,” he said. “But once those programs start paying out next October -- there's a gap between now and next October at least, or maybe even longer if the tariff and trade concerns continue.”

Source - https://nebraskapublicmedia.org