Wheat markets have seen strong price movement in recent days following a disappointing crop condition report across several major producing states.

Analysts say dry conditions in the Southern Plains are raising concerns as the crop emerges from winter dormancy. Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions explains that current ratings highlight how much the crop needs rain.

“You start with Montana, you’re 18% good to excellent. Nebraska’s also 18%. Oklahoma, a little bit better, but only 21% good to excellent. Texas, only 17 good to excellent,” Hoops said. “These are some major wheat-producing states, and their crop is not very good. Now things can change, but as we exit dormancy in the Southern Plains areas, we badly need some rain and a lot of the rain that is falling in my area this week and this weekend is missing some of these drier areas like western Kansas, western Oklahoma, out in Texas,” Hoops said.

Hoops says the wheat rally is currently being driven more by crop concerns than export demand.

According to the latest export sales data, about 7.5 million bushels of wheat were purchased over the past week. But brokers say lower exports are typical this time of year.

Greg McBride with Allendale Inc. says seasonal competition from South America plays a role.

“We don’t typically look for big sales at this time of the year. We know that Brazil and, well, even Argentina at some point here in the very near future are going be harvesting, or they are harvesting. But the situation is that they have cheaper beans at this time of the year anyway. They’ve got the freshest supply available and it’s ready to go. So they’re making these sales at this time.”

McBride says stronger new-crop sales data will likely begin appearing in early summer.

The March 15 deadline is approaching for farmers to modify their crop insurance coverage, and many producers are weighing key decisions amid tight margins as they head into the planting season. Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to discuss what farmers should be considering as they review their coverage options for the 2026 crop year.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, York explained that producers may evaluate changes in the types of crop protection products they choose this year as they respond to current market conditions and risk concerns. He also discussed how price and yield remain the two primary factors in crop insurance decisions, while noting that farmers are paying attention to additional risks as they plan for the season ahead.

Source - https://www.rfdtv.com