After two back-to-back deficient monsoons and a warm and dry winter, India Meteorological Department has warned of heavy unseasonal rain and hailstorm in 14 Indian states, which could pose as a threat to the Rabi harvest. The rainfall which is expected to hit the states between 11 and 15 March will be caused by an intense western disturbance currently lying over Iran. The states that are likely to be affected are: Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. Over the past week, winter crops of wheat, chickpea and mustard have suffered some damage in pockets of states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. While rainfall in monsoon was 14% below average last year, winter rainfall has been 57% below average. “The western disturbance will bring copious amount of rainfall and we have advised farmers to take actions to protect their crops. But there is not much they can do to protect wheat and cereal. There are still some measures that can be taken to protect fruit crops,” said N. Chattopadhyay, deputy director general of the agricultural meteorology at IMD. Some of the measures suggested for farmers include early harvesting of mature crops, keeping harvested produce in safer place and use of hail nets/hail caps to protect orchards from damage. Farmers in 15 states bore the brunt of unseasonal rain in March and April last year—just ahead of the winter harvest—which led to a 7% drop in wheat production in 2014-15 (compared to the previous year) and damaged crops of pulses, whose production fell by nearly 2 million tonnes. What’s worse, the freak rain was preceded by a drought in 2014, when the June to September southwest monsoon recorded a deficit of 12%. This was followed by a second drought in 2015 which saw a 14% deficit in rainfall and as many as 10 states declaring drought. Weather woes showed up in plummeting growth rates—the three consecutive crop failures resulted in a 0.2% decline in agricultural output in 2014-15. In 2015-16, the sector is expected to clock 1.1% growth, but the freak rain as predicted by the government forecaster might dampen this further, protracting the long period of rural distress. “The main Rabi crop in northern India is wheat and mustard. While normal rainfall will not be harmful to wheat, accompanying wind and hailstorm can be damaging both for wheat and mustard,” said Brajesh Jha, associate professor, agricultural economics unit, Institute of Economic Growth. “After last year’s monsoon failure, this could significantly damage farmer income and adequate support from the government and crop insurance are crucial to take care of farmers’ needs,” added Jha. Source - livemint.com