USA - The effect of low commodity prices on crop insurance

05.12.2016 306 views
In my previous two articles, I addressed the effect of low commodity prices on Title 1 Farm Bill programs specifically Agriculture Risk Coverage — County (ARC-CO) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC). Title 11 crop insurance programs are considered to work hand-in-hand with the Title 1 commodity programs to form the farm bill safety net. In 2014 Revenue Protection (RP) Insurance covered 88 percent of all insured corn acres and 85 percent of all insured wheat acres in the U.S. As revenue based insurance program, RP policies will make indemnity payments when either reduced prices and/or yields result in actual revenue that is lower than guaranteed revenue. The guaranteed revenue is determined by multiplying the projected price by the APH yield by the coverage level.
The projected price is determined by the futures prices during a one month discovery period. For corn the December futures contract during the month of February is used. Winter wheat uses the September contract from Aug. 15 to Sept. 14. Actual Production History (APH) yields are specific to a producer's farm or individual field. Finally, producers can choose coverage levels from 50 percent to 85 percent. The discovery period for winter wheat has been completed and the projected price for the 2016-17 crop has been determined to be $4.74/bu. If we multiply the projected price ($4.74) by a common dryland APH (30) by the highest coverage level available (85 percent) we get guaranteed revenue of $120.87/acre. According to the winter wheat budget for northeast Colorado posted to the CSU ABM website, http://www.coopext.colostate.edu/abm/, the total direct cost of producing one acre of winter wheat is $206.70. In this example, the RP policy would cover 58 percent of the cost of production. Corn that will be produced during the 2017 crop year has not completed the RP discovery period. If we use last year's projected price of $3.86 multiplied by a reasonable APH of 170 bu./acre multiplied by the highest coverage level available (85 percent) we get guaranteed revenue of $557.77/ acre. The CSU ABM budget for corn lists the total direct costs at $658.04/acre, resulting in coverage of 85 percent of the cost of production. Source - http://www.journal-advocate.com
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