Global average rice yield are likely to decline by about 1% in 2013-14 due to weather disturbances in key rice producing nations in Asia this year, according to the USDA. The decline in yield is mainly behind the agency’s move to cut global 2013-14 rice production forecast by around 2.6 million tons.

In its report, the USDA estimates global rice yield may fall from around 4.44 tons per hectare in 2012-13 to about 4.38 tons per hectare in 2013-14 mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions in China and India, the top two rice producers. The USDA lowered its 2013-14 estimates for India rice production to around 103 million tons, down about 2 million tons from around 105 million tons in the previous month’s forecast, and down about 5 million tons from earlier estimates of around 108 million tons. Last month, the USDA had lowered the 2013-14 estimates for China rice production from 142 million tons to around 141.5 million tons.

The USDA says that repeated cyclones hurt rice yield in India, while drier-than-normal weather in South China adversely affected rice yield of the late season rice crop there. Unfavorable weather conditions also hurt rice production in the Philippines, Thailand, the U.S., Pakistan and Myanmar this year. Global rice production estimates for 2013-14 are now placed at around 470.6 million tons, down about 2.6 million tons from previous estimates of around 473.2 million tons.

Global rice production in 2013-14 is expected to be higher than last year’s estimated 469 million tons. However, rice production could have reached much higher due to a record area under rice cultivation in 2013-14. According to the USDA, global rice area at a 160.1 million hectares in 2013-14 is up about 2.7 million hectares or around 1.6% from 2012-13. The USDA says that much of the area expansion (mostly in Burma, Cambodia, China, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan) is driven by higher government support prices.

Global rice consumption in 2013-14 is estimated at around 470.9 million tons, up about 6.3 million tons from around 464.6 million tons in the previous year, while global ending rice stocks in 2013-14 are expected to decline to around 104.3 million tons, down about 2.2 million tons from around 106.5 million tons in 2012-13, USDA says.

Source - http://oryza.com/