Wet weather has cost Kazakhstan the chance of a recovery in its wheat output – and indeed left farmers, whose crop last year was hurt by rains, facing the weather risks entailed with a late harvest.
The US Department of Agriculture bureau in Astana forecast a second successive year of declining wheat output in Kazakhstan, to 12.8m tonnes, rather than the increase to 13.5m tonnes that the department itself has forecast.
And the bureau signalled the potential for further losses, given that harvest looks like being delayed until October.
"If October is wet, then it will be hard to avoid low-quality and losses," the bureau said.
'Significant negative impact'
The caution reflected rains which had started in mid-September last year, "lasted through the end of fall and continued as snow," and resumed in mid-May, leaving soil "oversaturated" when the 2015 spring sowing programme began.
"Some experts believe that delays in planting in northern Kazakhstan reached one month, which has a significant negative impact on vegetation development."
Furthermore, some 15-20% of crop officially reported as planted in northern Kazakhstan in fact went unseeded.
"Farmers with insufficient machinery were only able to complete 50-60% of their sowing," the bureau said.
And growers who did better on plantings are grappling with the weeds and wheat rust, a fungal disease, encouraged by the wet weather.
Dent to exports
A poor quality crop would represent a second in a row for Kazakhstan, which saw its 2014-15 harvest affected by the rains which started in September, just when combines are typically beginning to roll.
In some areas this allowed "no chance for normal maturation and harvesting", forcing growers to leave crop standing through the winter for harvesting in a dry spell in April.
However, the bureau also noted that "grain exporters confirm that Kazakhstani exports in 2014-15 were affected by the poor quality of wheat produced.
"The 2014-15 Kazakh crop had a malty flavour, lower test weight and lower protein content."
Kazakh wheat exports in 2014-15, on a September-to-August basis, were forecast down 26% at 6.0m tonnes, a level at which they were expected to remain in 2015-16.
Russian record
The weakened expectations for Kazakh wheat output this year contrast with improved forecasts for Russia, which had appeared poised for a poor harvest after a dry autumn sowing period last year.
The Russian farm ministry on Wednesday said that its Krasnodar region had, with harvest almost over, achieved a record 9.8m tonnes in production of grains and pulses this year, up 650,000 tonnes from a year ago.
The region's wheat output had risen to 8.7m tonnes, on a yield of 5.92 tonnes per hectare.
Source - http://www.agrimoney.com/
