As Germany's main growing season kicks off in May, concerns are rising that spring-sown crops could be at risk, with drought and erratic rainfall affecting the country and much of Europe.
The latest reports from European and German climate monitoring authorities show a familiar trend of extreme weather.
Yet this year feels different: Germany could face its worst drought since 1931, the German Weather Service (DWD) warns. Soil moisture levels are already lower than during the devastating 2018 drought, and forecasts remain uncertain.
Weather conditions now carry heightened weight for sowing and harvesting. “The decisive factor will be conditions during the main growing season, which begins in May,” Stefan Siebert, professor of agronomy at the University of Göttingen, told Euractiv.
Between February and mid-April, just 40 litres of rain per square metre fell on average – a massive 68% below the long-term mean, according to the DWD.
In Germany, which accounts for 15% of the EU’s cereal production, the area of topsoil affected by exceptional drought has expanded over the past fortnight and now covers large parts of the country.
Measured across the total soil column, most regions are currently classified as “abnormally dry,” according to the drought monitor maintained by the Leipzig-based Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research.
Adaptation challenge
While winter crops sown in autumn have deep roots that can still access water, “the greatest problems are likely for spring-sown crops – grain legumes, spring cereals, and maize,” Siebert warned, especially if germination moisture remains insufficient.
In response, farmers have adapted by shifting towards water-conserving cultivation methods, such as direct and mulch sowing, the German Farmers' Association (DBV) told Euractiv. Crops like chickpeas, which tolerate longer dry periods, are also being tested more widely.
Recent rains have offered some temporary relief, preventing immediate crop damage in many regions. However, rapeseed crops appear poorly developed, noted Claas Nendel of the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), although winter cereals show no immediate issues.
Concrete predictions for the 2025 harvest are still premature, DBV emphasized. “Crucially, sufficient rainfall is needed during the grain filling phase in early summer,” they said.
A European strain
Germany is not alone. According to the latest EU monitoring, published last week, the outlook remains positive in Europe for most crops. But drought concerns stretch across Central and Eastern Europe breadbaskets.
In Poland, where 13% of EU cereals were harvested in 2024, experts see "cause for a degree of concern." The country has seen significantly reduced precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures this spring, leaving riverbeds and soils visibly parched.
Large parts of Central and Eastern Europe are facing the opposite of lush fields and meadows this summer. For these areas, forecasts by the German meteorological agency DWD project rainfalls to be at a three-month-average of 10 litres per cubic metre at best between May and July.
“Central and Eastern Europe, with its continental climate, has always had hotter and drier summers, and crops are increasingly dependent on soil moisture reserves being replenished over the winter,” Nendel explained.
A new normal?
Experts caution that these patterns are not isolated events. “We have to expect more extreme events and a less favourable distribution of rainfall for agriculture,” Siebert stressed.
Currently, especially sandy soils in northeast Germany and Bavaria remain a worry for spring-sown crops, if the dry spell continues and even if May brings needed rain, longer-term structural adaptation is unavoidable.
Managing water resources more efficiently and breeding more resilient crop varieties — potentially using new genetic modification techniques — will be crucial, DBV urged, adding that lawmakers must create regulatory frameworks to support their adoption.
Source - https://www.euractiv.com
