The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in its March report titled “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” that so-called compounding disasters of heat and drought events could cause large-scale crop damage and labour productivity losses.

India did not have to wait long to experience the truth of this observation.

A succession of heatwaves over the past three months, occurred simultaneously with a long dry spell over northwest India resulting in power shortage, forest and crop fires, and hit wheat yields.

IPCC said in its report that there is an increasing concurrence of heat and drought events which are causing crop production losses and tree mortality. It added that global warming above 1.5 degree C would increase risk of simultaneous crop losses of maize in major food-producing regions. Risks to health and food production would be made more severe by the interaction of sudden food production losses from heat and drought, exacerbated by heat-induced labour productivity losses, it said.

“These interacting impacts will increase food prices, reduce household incomes, and lead to health risks of malnutrition and climate-related mortality with no or low levels of adaptation, especially in tropical regions,” the IPCC report said.

Following severe heat waves in March and April over northwest India, India banned exports of wheat, abruptly reversing its policy to send shipments around the world to plug a global food shortage. The notification by the directorate general of foreign trade said the step was taken in the interest of national food security.

“The event unfolding now is a perfect example of a compound extreme event that the IPCC has warned of, where drought conditions overlap with heatwaves and forest fires. As global warming continues unabated, we are seeing more of these compound events were multiple extreme events overlap. On the coastal side, heavy rains and storm surges from cyclones are coinciding with sea level rise submerging the coastal regions for prolonged periods. In the oceans, marine heatwaves are leading to coral bleaching and changes in the characteristics of cyclones and the monsoon. We need to understand and forecast these overlapping and cascading events so as to prepare and adapt for the monstrous extremes of the future that do not in any way look like the extreme weather events from the past,” said Mathew Roxy Koll, climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Extreme heat stress as is being experienced now also creates a vicious cycle as demand for air conditioners and irrigation rises, leading to high greenhouse gas emissions. “What is most concerning is that the long-lasting heatwave is accompanied by a long-lasting rainfall deficit. The north-northwest states of India are facing a massive rainfall deficit of 70-90% or more for the entire March to mid-May period. The dry conditions combined with a heatwave aggravates the stress on humans, ecosystem, and agriculture, and lead to forest fires and crop loss. It is hence an immense threat on the water, food and energy sector of the country. This also pushes the demand for more electricity and fossil fuel consumption for cooling and irrigation, leading to more emissions. This can be a vicious cycle as temperatures go further up,” he explained.

Source - https://www.hindustantimes.com