A third of Ukraine’s corn crop is still standing in fields as winter sets in, adding further strain on its vital farming sector.
Growers have been hit by a series of hurdles: Record autumn rainfall muddied fields. The war has depressed how much farmers can fetch for their goods. And strikes on the country’s infrastructure have limited electricity needed to dry soggy grain.
While exports have been curbed by Russia’s invasion, Ukraine remains the world’s fourth-largest corn shipper and has a significant impact on global supply. The grain can still be collected into spring, although prospects for its quality and quantity are ebbing.
“I have maybe 90% of all my corn on the field now and it’s already snowy,” Petro Melnyk, chief executive of agribusiness Agricom Group, said last week by phone. “The whole of September and two-thirds of October, I couldn’t harvest because of the weather.”
The US Department of Agriculture cut its Ukraine corn crop outlook to 27 million tons on Dec. 9, down 4.5 million tons, citing relentless autumn rains in three key oblasts. That would be a five-year low. The United Nations predicts an even lower forecast of 24 million tons.
Harvest is progressing at “record slow” speed, Kyiv-based analyst UkrAgroConsult said in a note. As of Tuesday, 34% remains unharvested, government data show.
Farmers have left corn over winter in seasons past. Still, the bulk is usually collected by December, UkrAgroConsult said. More snow and showers over the next two weeks could delay fieldwork until 2023.
The rainy weather boosted the need to dry down grain before it can be properly stored, said Monika Tothova, economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. That’s been complicated — and made more costly — as Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure sparked nationwide blackouts, making it difficult to consistently run agricultural facilities.
Most corn has had moisture content of about 25%, versus 18-20% normally, said Tetiana Alaverdova, commercial manager at farming company HarvEast. She hopes their harvest will finish in February, which would mark the latest ever for the firm. The delays can lower yields and risk quality issues like fusarium, she said.
Agricom’s Melnyk said he’s most worried about soybeans, which he’s never left over winter.
The Ukrainian Grain Association urged the government to prioritize electricity to silos to prevent spoiled grain and aid farmer finances. Military dangers and labor constraints have added to harvest challenges, according to APK-Inform, an agricultural research firm.
The slowdowns are denting a key source of income for Ukraine’s farm industry, which has already suffered more than $4 billion in damage from the war. Corn is the biggest crop the country grows and ships, by volume.
“We may lose a few million tons of corn, for sure,” Andriy Vadaturskyy, chief executive officer of Ukrainian grain trader Nibulon Ltd., said at a press briefing.
For now, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry expects farmers will finish harvesting within several months, deputy minister Taras Vysotskyi said in late November. Local growers are inventive in finding solutions to deal with the power disruptions, like using fuel generators or even wood to dry grain, according to farmer Oleksandr Peretiatko.
But domestic crop prices are weak, partly due to high logistic costs, and farmers are incurring significant losses, according to the ministry. The harvest struggles also mean growers can’t prepare soils for spring as usual. It expects corn plantings to ebb in 2023, while oilseeds expand.
“It is not unusual for the maize harvest to continue until January,” the UN’s Tothova said by email, referring to corn. “But the obstacles, particularly related to energy, are likely to prevail.”
Source - https://www.bloomberg.com
